Bitcoin price is consolidating around $106,000, with whale investors buying in large quantities, but market momentum shows signs of weakness.

The cost ranges for short-term holders are clear: holders for 1 to 4 weeks have an average cost of about $106,200, while those holding for 3 to 6 months have a cost of about $97,500, forming a key psychological battleground. Selling pressure near the cost line may hinder price breakthroughs, while buyers consider $97,500 as a buying discount zone.

IntoTheBlock data shows that whale inflows have surged by 254.46%, while outflows have decreased by 53.86%, indicating that whales are accumulating coins, which strengthens price support.

The NVT ratio of Bitcoin has risen by 55.38% to 49.47, indicating that price growth is outpacing on-chain transaction volume, which may pose a risk of overvaluation, and momentum indicators show weakness at the market peak.

The Stock-to-Flow model has weakened due to a 25% drop in price, with the market focusing more on real-time capital flows and cost basis, reflecting skepticism towards halving-driven valuation models.

Bitcoin's price is constrained by the resistance level at $106,200 and an upward trend line; the MACD indicator shows weakening momentum. If it fails to break through resistance, the price may retreat to $97,500; if it breaks through, it could target $110,000.

Overall, the continued buying by whales and the stability of the NVT ratio will determine whether Bitcoin can break through the key resistance level.

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