On January 3, 2021, when ETH/BTC approached its historical bottom of 0.023, btc.d was at its historical high of 73%. On April 22, 2025, when ETH/BTC approached its historical low of 0.017, btc.d did not reach its historical high of over 70%, only 64%. According to the theory of刻舟, ETH/BTC should test the bottom twice, and btc.d would face resistance at 70%. But will it really be like刻舟 in the future? Not necessarily, no one can predict.

In addition, in 2021, the two main currencies dominating the market were BTC and ETH. Considering that the issuance of USDT.D that year was not that much, when btc.d reached its peak, it only retraced to 2%. However, in 2025, there are too many altcoins dominating the market, and they have taken a portion of the market share from eth.D (such as the Solana ecosystem, BTC ecosystem, etc.), and with the increase in USDT issuance, it further divided the market share. Therefore, I personally think that in the first scenario: either btc.d cannot reach the 73% position this time. In the second scenario: either it will still reach that position, but it will need to further compress the market share of other coins.

From a philosophical perspective, hydrogen accounts for the largest proportion of the elements in the universe, approximately 75% of the total mass of the universe. Helium also has a large proportion, about 23%. Therefore, btc.d reaching 73% and then retreating indicates that the material elements in the virtual blockchain world also follow the proportional laws of real cosmic elements. It is highly probable that btc.d will still impact around the 73% position and then trigger a season of altcoins. (However, this round is likely to be slightly lower than the 73% position, because some new materials that did not exist in the world of 2021 have emerged in the virtual world.) However, among the remaining proportion of altcoins, there should be new products that will divide the market share of ETH in this round.

If, in this round, even if btc.d is blocked and retreats after impacting the historical high range, among the altcoins that will explode in market share, many will take a portion of the original eth.d ecosystem, with the BTC ecosystem and Solana ecosystem leading the way. Because if the same market share occurs in ETH, it would be like reinventing the wheel, allowing most people who刻舟 to profit, but this market should not allow most people to make money. To say something metaphysical, I personally think that the BTC ecosystem might be quite extraordinary, precisely because everyone is not optimistic.