The trends in the Bitcoin market always attract attention, but among various price indicators, the Realized Price is a significant metric that is often overlooked. Currently, this value is $47,021; it does not represent the market price but rather the average price at which all circulating Bitcoins last changed hands. In other words, it reflects the 'real cost' of the entire market.
Generally speaking, when the BTC price continuously rises, more players buy in at high levels, and the chips begin to flow in the high price range, pushing up the Realized Price. Conversely, when market sentiment is low and trading cools, this value will correspondingly decrease. However, these changes do not always occur simultaneously. Long-term holders often do not easily sell their Bitcoins, and even during significant price fluctuations, they may not have a noticeable impact on the Realized Price.
Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, there is always a stage in each complete four-year cycle where the BTC price falls below the Realized Price. This stage is often accompanied by extreme panic and sell-offs, marking the darkest moments of the market. However, it is also during this period that truly committed players can often achieve returns far exceeding expectations. The cost of such opportunities, however, is a strong belief in the future and immense psychological resilience.
In the current cycle, such a low-price window seems to have yet to arrive. Although many players are still observing, hoping for the opportunity to 'go all in during a bear market' to come again, from the current market trend, this idea may not be realistic.
Let's recall this past April when the U.S. stock market experienced intense fluctuations due to tariff policies, Bitcoin's price briefly surpassed $80,000 but did not decline in sync with the stock market. At that time, several institutions and large traders were quietly positioning themselves, with strong whale buying. The capital volume of institutional players far exceeds that of ordinary players; once they continue to buy, the market's correction space is significantly compressed.
In this context, will the 'bargain price' of $40,000 reappear? Perhaps the next real opportunity will not be at the bottom of prices, but at the height of understanding.