Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, totaling $2.06 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $249.1 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.72%, of which USDT accounts for 62.05%.
This week, BTC's price showed range-bound fluctuations, currently at $103,655; ETH also showed range-bound fluctuations, currently at $2,481.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number rose while most fell. Notably: SKY increased by 10% in 7 days, LA increased by 183.83% in 7 days, MASK increased by 47.53% in 7 days, ANIME increased by 37.33% in 7 days.
This week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $130.8 million; the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was $280.8 million.
The 'Fear & Greed Index' on June 6th is 46 (the index is lower than last week), and this week's sentiment is: Neutral over the past 7 days.
Market Predictions:
This week, stablecoins continue to be issued, with a net outflow in the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF continuing the trend from last week, while the Ethereum spot ETF sees a net inflow. Both BTC and ETH maintain range-bound fluctuations. The RSI index is at 49.59, indicating neutrality, while the altcoin season index is at 18. This week, the U.S. May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with the 'small non-farm' employment index showing the smallest increase since March 2023. The fear and greed index remains neutral.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is only 2.6%, with expectations for a rate cut to begin in Q3 of this year. The market shows two situations: listed companies 'rushing to buy BTC' and profit-takers and spot ETF sell-offs. If there are no major events or new liquidity inflows, BTC will maintain a fluctuation around $100,000 to $105,000 next week. Attention can be paid to the progress of the relationship between Chuanma.
Understanding the Present
Review of Major Events of the Week
On June 2nd, according to Cointelegraph, Ethereum founder Vitalik stated at the ETHGlobal Prague conference that Ethereum will expand its L1 scale by about 10 times within a year, and then 'take a breather' before the next leap.
On June 3rd, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is seeking opinions on whether to amend rules to allow the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund to create and redeem physical assets.
On June 3rd, according to reports late at night from South Korea's JTBC television, the Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung has been elected as the President of South Korea. Lee Jae-myung has promised to push for the approval of a crypto spot ETF and proposed the issuance of a stablecoin based on the Korean won.
On June 4th, documents show that Trump's social platform Truth Social submitted a Bitcoin ETF application.
On June 4th, according to Decrypt, Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO Joe Lubin stated that his company is negotiating with a 'very powerful' country regarding potential construction based on Ethereum with its 'main sovereign wealth fund and banks.'
On June 4th, Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump and co-founder of WLFI, clarified in a post that 'the Trump Organization has no association with this wallet product (developed in collaboration with Magic Eden and TRUMP Meme). Eric Trump and I are unaware of it. Please stay tuned—World Liberty Financial, which we have been working hard to advance, will soon launch our official wallet.'
On June 5th, according to CoinDesk, stablecoin issuer Circle completed its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange at $31 per share, exceeding the original expected pricing range ($24-26), raising $1.1 billion with a valuation of $6.2 billion. The stock code is 'CRCL' and will begin trading on Thursday. This IPO was originally planned to issue 24 million shares but was expanded to over 34 million shares due to surging demand. Circle's USDC is the second-largest stablecoin in the U.S., and its listing comes as U.S. lawmakers push for stablecoin regulatory legislation.
On June 5th, YZi Labs announced an investment in OneKey. OneKey is an open-source hardware wallet project focused on enhancing the security of crypto assets and empowering global users to manage their assets independently.
On June 5th, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that the U.S. economy has declined over the past six weeks, hiring has slowed, and consumers and businesses are worried about price increases related to tariffs. Regarding inflation, the report stated that prices are 'moderately rising,' but there is a general expectation among businesses that future costs and prices will rise at a faster pace.
On June 5th, according to The Wall Street Journal, after Musk criticized the Republican Party's massive tax and spending bill, Trump seems to have lost patience with Musk. Meanwhile, Musk was annoyed by Trump's decision to withdraw the nomination of an important ally to lead NASA. A senior White House official stated that Trump was unhappy with Musk's decision to criticize the bill he signed, expressing confusion over Musk's intensified criticism after closely collaborating for four months. The official noted that Trump's senior advisors were caught off guard by Musk's latest offensive.
Macroeconomics
On June 4th, the U.S. ADP employment numbers for May recorded an increase of 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, with market expectations at 110,000.
On June 5th, the European Central Bank lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, marking the seventh consecutive meeting of rate cuts. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were lowered from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4%, respectively.
On June 6th, according to CME's 'FedWatch': the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%.
On June 6th, the U.S. May adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 139,000, with expectations at 130,000, and the previous value revised from 177,000 to 147,000.
On June 7th, according to official data from the People's Bank of China, China's gold reserves at the end of May reported 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) month-on-month, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation.
ETF
According to statistics, from June 2nd to June 6th, the net outflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $130.8 million; as of June 6th, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.208 billion, currently holding $19.327 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.137 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $128.868 billion.
The net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the U.S. was $280.8 million.
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA from June 23rd to 25th, 2025.
Permissionless IV will be held in New York, USA from June 24th to 26th, 2025.
EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France from June 30th to July 3rd, 2025.
IVS2025 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 2nd to 4th, 2025.
The 'OpenLedger China Tour' Hong Kong stop will be held on June 13th (Friday) from 18:30 to 21:30. This series of events will successively visit five cities (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu).
Project Progress
On June 9th, the chain Skate, aimed at connecting all VMs, will release its publication and promotional video, seemingly hinting at the TGE date.
On June 10th, the Base ecosystem social prediction market Upside is expected to launch.
Important Events
Circle has frozen 58 million USDT related to the Libra scandal. The crypto law firm Burwick Law stated that it has applied for a temporary restraining order in the Southern District of New York Federal Court and has received approval, with an initial injunction hearing scheduled for June 9th.
The chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, French Hill, has set June 10th as the date for the House's review of the cryptocurrency market structure bill.
Token Unlocking
On June 9th, GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens, worth approximately $4.33 million, accounting for 1.43% of the circulating supply.
On June 12th, Vana (VANA) will unlock 14.8 million tokens, worth approximately $94.48 million, accounting for 12.33% of the circulating supply.
On June 13th, Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens, worth approximately $12.72 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply.
On June 15th, Starknet (STRK) will unlock 163 million tokens, worth approximately $21.59 million, accounting for 1.63% of the circulating supply.
On June 15th, Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens, worth approximately $42.61 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply.
On June 15th, Horizen (ZEN) will unlock 810,000 tokens, worth approximately $8.28 million, accounting for 3.89% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a service system of 'trend analysis + value exploration + real-time tracking,' offering detailed analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessments of potential projects, and all-day market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly live broadcasts of (Hotcoin Selection) strategy and (Blockchain Headlines) daily news updates, providing precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Relying on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments inherently carry risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
