As Bitcoin's price corrects below $105,000 after a brief surge to $112,000, the ambitious year-end target of $150,000 is facing increased scrutiny. While some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, several technical indicators and historical fractals suggest a significant correction may be on the horizon, potentially challenging the optimistic price prediction.
Bearish Technicals Point to a Potential Downturn
One of the most concerning signals is the formation of an inverse cup-and-handle pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart. With the neckline near $100,800 acting as current support, a breakdown below this level could see Bitcoin drop towards $91,000. This downside target aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a critical support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also signaling weakening upside momentum, with a current reading of 52 and a potential intensification of selling pressure if it falls below 50. To avert this, bulls need to reclaim the 20-day EMA resistance around $105,000.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin's weekly chart is displaying a bearish divergence between price and RSI, reminiscent of the 2021 cycle top. In 2021, a similar divergence preceded a 61% correction. This current divergence, forming just below the $112,000 high, projects a potential pullback towards the 200-week EMA, currently around $64,000 – a staggering 52% decline. This historical parallel casts significant doubt on Bitcoin reaching the $150,000 target by the end of 2025 if a similar market top confirms.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt further reinforces this cautious outlook, identifying a rising wedge pattern. He warns that Bitcoin must soon reclaim its parabolic trendline to stay on track for a $125,000–$150,000 cycle top by August or September 2025. Failure to do so could mark the end of the current bullish cycle, potentially triggering a typical 50–60% drawdown.
Lingering Hopes for $150K
Despite these growing technical warnings, some analysts remain confident in Bitcoin's ability to reach the $150,000 mark.
One argument draws similarities between Bitcoin's current market structure and gold's explosive breakout in the 2000s, suggesting Bitcoin could mimic gold's historic trajectory. Additionally, analyst Tony Severino points to a potential bull flag structure that could propel BTC's price towards $150,000.
From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes BTC is approaching a critical "start" rally zone based on historical cycle patterns. He suggests that if the NUPL/MVRV ratio breaks and holds above 1.0, it would signal the beginning of a new bullish impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin's price into the $150,000–$175,000 range, echoing rallies seen in 2017 and 2021.
In conclusion, while the allure of a $150,000 Bitcoin by year-end remains, the increasing prevalence of bearish technical indicators suggests a challenging path ahead. Investors will be closely watching key support levels and historical fractals to gauge whether Bitcoin can defy these warnings or if a significant correction will first redefine its bullish trajectory.
Follow Me For More Information 😊
