1. Prices are pretending to be dead, but on-chain activity has been surging. Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating in the $102,000 - $105,000 range; Ethereum (ETH) has only been hovering between $2,450 - $2,550.
But behind this 'boring market', on-chain data is like it has been given adrenaline:
The total supply of stablecoins has surged to $249 billion, an increase of $80 billion year-on-year, with an annual growth rate of 50%.
The total amount of on-chain lending has hit a record high of over $24 billion.
The total value locked (TVL) in lending protocols has returned to high levels, with Aave accounting for nearly $24 billion.
The amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has reached its lowest level since 2018, remaining at only 11%.
Conclusion? Don't be blinded by the sideways market: money is entering the market on a large scale, but the price has yet to reflect it.


2. Why is the surge in stablecoins a significant signal? Stablecoins are not 'dead money', but rather the most flexible liquidity weapon on-chain.
Where are stablecoins used? DeFi trading, DEX swapping, lending, staking...
Data shows: the three giants USDT, USDC, and DAI account for a market cap of $249 billion.
Compared to $160 billion in the same period last year, that’s an increase of $80 billion, representing solid buying reserves.
The key point: the explosion of stablecoins is often a leading indicator of price trends. This indicates:
The on-chain reservoir is full, just waiting for which price valve will open first.


3. On-chain lending: Leverage sentiment quietly returns. If stablecoins are 'ammunition', then lending is the 'bullets fired out'.
Data shows that by early June 2025, the total amount of outstanding loans on-chain exceeded $24 billion, which was less than $8 billion at the beginning of 2023, tripling from there.
Why is this important?
Lending represents the market's willingness to 'make money work', signaling a warming risk appetite;
Yield is the primal impulse of crypto enthusiasts: stablecoin deposits can yield 5%, ETH staking can also borrow money to play with; who still cares about that little interest from banks?


4. Market behavior: not chasing highs, but quietly 'siphoning off'. A sideways price does not mean no one is moving; rather, smart money is 'lying in wait'.
From on-chain data, BTC is flowing out of exchanges and being quietly moved to cold wallets:
Glassnode data: the proportion of BTC on exchanges has dropped to 11%, the lowest since 2018.
Compared to 17.2% in March 2020, this means that over 1.2 million Bitcoins have been moved away.
What does it mean? Off-exchange funds are accumulating, not being distributed. This is not a top distribution, but a slow accumulation at the bottom.
5. RSI is flat, coin prices are stable, but on-chain is not buying the narrative. The RSI on technical charts is a sentiment thermometer for short-term trends.
Bitcoin's 14-day RSI hovers around 50, while Ethereum's is around 52, indicating that the market lacks enthusiasm;
But on-chain data shows: investors are not exiting, but rather lurking in preparation for the next round of explosions.
CryptoQuant data further confirms: the reluctance to sell BTC among holders has reached a two-year high.
6. Conclusion: Don't be blinded by the 'sideways' market; the true bull market logic is brewing off-chain. Prices are horizontal, while on-chain is rising; funds are calm, and structures are changing.
This is the typical scene before the start of several past Bitcoin bull markets: it’s not the surge that comes first, but liquidity gathers first, leverage activates first, and hoarding of coins happens first.
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