One, Wall Street's Nuclear Alert! Countdown to U.S. Treasury Collapse?

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio have issued rare synchronized warnings: U.S. Treasury yields are about to break 5%, with a global debt crisis entering a countdown! Latest data shows that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has soared to 4.38%, while the 30-year yield has broken the 5% threshold. After Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, market concerns over U.S. Treasury default risk have reached a boiling point — if the U.S. government pays off its debt through money printing, the purchasing power of the dollar will significantly shrink, leading to substantial losses for institutions and individuals holding U.S. Treasuries.


Core Logic:

  • Debt Avalanche: U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and Trump's latest tax cut proposal is expected to add another $3.8 trillion in debt over the next 10 years, with the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP rising from 98% to 134%.

  • Liquidity Crisis: The imbalance of supply and demand in U.S. Treasuries is worsening, with $6.5 trillion in Treasuries maturing in June, and the market's ability to absorb this is severely lacking.

Two, Trump's Tax Cut Storm: A Black Swan More Terrifying than Tariffs

After tariff policies triggered a crash in the crypto market, Trump's 'Big and Beautiful' tax cut plan is brewing a larger crisis:

  • Policy Paradox: While reducing taxes stimulates the economy, it forces the U.S. government to fill an $11 trillion budget gap through bond issuance, creating a vicious cycle of 'borrowing new to pay old.'

  • Market Chain Reaction: Soaring U.S. Treasury yields will raise global financing costs, putting pressure on tech stock valuations in the U.S. stock market, with the crypto market as a high-risk asset being hit hardest. Historical data shows that when U.S. Treasury yields broke above 3% in June 2022, Bitcoin plummeted 33% in a month.


Key Signals:

  • Institutional Movements: Bridgewater Fund has increased its short position in U.S. Treasuries by $10 billion, betting on further increases in U.S. Treasury yields.

  • On-chain Data: Bitcoin whale addresses showed a 27% surge in selling volume within 30 days, with some institutions beginning to sell BTC to hedge against U.S. Treasury risks.

Three, The Truth Behind Whale Spoofy Liquidation: Is Bitcoin going to fall to $80,000?

The whale Spoofy, known as the 'Crypto Market Barometer,' has recently taken actions that have shaken the market:

  • Liquidation Signal: An address cleared all holdings near Bitcoin's $110,000 mark, and did not bottom fish when it corrected to $100,000, indicating extreme pessimism towards the short-term market.

  • Historical Patterns: After each exit by Spoofy, Bitcoin typically takes 1.5-2 months to stabilize. Referencing the case in August 2024 after its selling, Bitcoin fell from $70,000 to $55,000; this bottom may be in the $80,000 - $85,000 range.

Four, June Curse: Will ETH's 70% crash in history repeat?

Bitcoin's 'Death June' pattern is unfolding:

  • Seasonal Factors: Over the past five years, the average decline of Bitcoin in June has been 20%; it dropped below $9,000 in June 2020 and plummeted 33% in a single week in June 2022.

  • Technical Breakdown: Bitcoin has fallen below the critical support level of $105,000, with the RSI indicator entering the oversold zone but not forming a divergence; it may dip to $95,000 in the short term.


Ethereum Trap:

  • History Repeats: In June 2022, ETH fell from $3,000 to $880, a drop of over 70%. Currently, ETH is fluctuating around $12,000; if Bitcoin breaks down, ETH may drop to $8,000.

  • DeFi Risks: On-chain data shows that among the ETH options open contracts, 35% are put options with a strike price of $8,000, indicating extreme bearish sentiment in the market.

Five, Timing for Bottom Fishing: A golden opportunity may appear in August; these signals must be closely monitored!

🔍 Essential Indicators Before Bottom Fishing:

  1. U.S. Treasury Yield: If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above 5% and remains for 3 days, the crypto market will enter a 'panic selling phase,' and the bottom fishing window may open in mid to late July.

  2. Whale Movements: Spoofy address shows signs of increased BTC holdings, or Grayscale's GBTC premium turning positive, seen as a sign of institutional entry.

  3. Technical Confirmation: Bitcoin's 4-hour chart shows a 'Morning Star' formation, with trading volume expanding to more than twice the average.

📅 Time Window:

  • Short-term Risk: If the non-farm payroll data released this Friday for June is below 130,000, it will strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, and Bitcoin may drop to $95,000.

  • Medium-term Opportunity: If the August Federal Reserve Jackson Hole meeting releases signals for interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is expected to establish a bottom in the $80,000 - $85,000 range, initiating a 'Halloween Rally' (historical patterns show an average increase of over 50% between October and December).

💡 Practical Strategy:

  • Building Positions in Batches: Buy 30% at $95,000, add 40% at $90,000, stop loss if it falls below $85,000.

  • Leverage Risk Control: Open perpetual contracts not exceeding 10% of total funds, set a 1% stop loss + 3% take profit.

  • Hedge Allocation: Transfer 20% of funds into USDT to hedge against extreme market risks.


Advice for Retail Investors:
Don't let panic force you to sell at the bottom! After Bitcoin dropped 30% in June 2023, a rebound of over 100% in August may repeat. Those who have been washed out now are the ones who will be making big profits in the future! Follow Bingbing for the next 10x wealth opportunity 🚀
#非农就业数据来袭 $BTC