Ethereum's summer carnival may be interrupted by the technical upgrade's doves letting the kite fly.
News Analysis:
Pectra Upgrade Delay Hampering Progress
Ethereum's highly anticipated Pectra upgrade may be delayed to the third quarter due to testnet vulnerabilities, dampening market confidence. Technical upgrades were initially seen as positive, but the 'default' has instead become ammunition for bears, leaving expectations for ecosystem optimization unfulfilled, with a keen wait-and-see sentiment among short-term funds.
Institutional Funds Fake Moves
ETH ETFs have seen net inflows for 12 consecutive days (with a single-day high of $78 million), but the ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a new low for the year (0.0238). Large funds clearly prefer Bitcoin. Institutions like BlackRock talk bullishly but are actually 'siphoning' between BTC and ETH, and ETH's rise lacks solid support.
Regulatory Hidden Risks Not Cleared
The SEC's stance on staking ETFs is ambiguous. If policies tighten, the 'yield' attribute of ETH may be weakened. Coupled with the U.S. Treasury's ongoing consideration of including ETH in reserves, the favorable news remains unfulfilled.
Technical Analysis:
MACD Death Cross + RSI Weakness
The 4-hour MACD death cross is widening, with green bars (negative values) continuously increasing in volume. After breaking below the 50 midline, RSI's rebound is weak, indicating a short-term exhaustion of bullish momentum and a clear control by the bears.
Key Levels Continuously Breached
ETH price has fallen below the 200-day moving average (approximately $2500) and the psychological support level of $2500. If it breaks below $2440 (the area of dense trading since the beginning of the year), it may trigger on-chain liquidations of $336 million, leading to a cascading decline.
Bollinger Bands 'Funnel' Opening Downwards
Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards, with prices running closely along the lower band. The technical formation resembles a 'slide,' with heavy resistance for rebounds. A large number of trapped positions are accumulated around $2700-$2750, making short-term breakthroughs difficult.
Ethereum's narrative has always been 'the deeper the squat, the harder the jump'—but this time, let's wait for the doves of the upgrade to land first! Always buying the dip halfway? Prices start to fall before reaching the profit-taking point? Follow me for precise advice immediately!
