The news is the wind, the technicals are the sails; both are needed to navigate out of the fog of the crypto sea.
News front: Policy and capital game.
Policy benefits accumulate: Oklahoma, USA, has passed the (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act), allowing the state government to allocate 10% of funds to buy BTC, coupled with Trump's camp promoting 'American-made' crypto ETFs, paving the way for institutional entry in the long run.
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations: If subsequent CPI data weakens, the possibility of restarting interest rate cuts may directly benefit BTC due to liquidity easing. However, be wary of short-term disruptions due to tariff upgrades in April.
Whale bottom-buying signal: On-chain data shows that the top 100 BTC addresses' holding ratio has been continuously rising, and whales hold $270 million in long positions on the Hyperliquid platform, indicating a clear intention to accumulate at lower prices.
Technical analysis: Key levels define bullish or bearish.
Bull-bear dividing line: The current price of 104,300 is exactly the middle band of the Bollinger Band (4-hour chart); if above, bullish; if broken, bearish.
MACD hides tricks: Although a golden cross has formed, it is below the zero line, casting doubt on the strength of the rebound. If it breaks through the strong resistance at 106,800 (previous high neckline), a trend reversal can be expected.
Support and risk:
Strong support: 103,400 (bullish lifeline), if broken, may deeply probe 102,000.
Strong resistance: 111,980 (previous high), a breakthrough requires volume support.
What to do if stuck? Three-step unblocking method.
Low position replenishment: If the position ≤ 50%, gradually purchase near 103,400, to dilute the cost (e.g., if stuck at 104,372, the cost can be reduced to 103,800 after replenishment).
High sell low buy: In a volatile market, trade within the range of 104,500-105,500, earning a price difference of 2%-3% each time, gradually reducing costs.
Tool hedging: Use 'dual-currency wealth management' (e.g., OKX dual-currency win), set a strike price of 104,000: if BTC is below this price, acquire more coins; if above, earn a stable return of 4%-5%.
Big G reminds: It's better to take initiative than to stubbornly hold deep losses! Those with positions > 70% should prioritize reducing positions to safety lines (e.g., 50%) when the price is high, keeping bullets ready for right-side signals.
