As the weekend approaches, XRP has once again welcomed its 'last' opportunity for recovery alongside other parts of the cryptocurrency market.
XRP is at a critical turning point, currently testing its 200-day exponential moving average—this long-term support has historically been a core basis for price reversals. With pressure continuing to accumulate, if this support is lost, XRP may fall into a spiral of deep declines.
Intraday, XRP had a strong rebound from the 200-day moving average position, indicating that the bulls are still actively defending this key area, with the current price maintaining around $2.16. However, this support faces significant risk of being broken. If lost, the first potential support below will fall around $1, which is an extremely low level. If the price continues to weaken to this point, it would mean a 50% retracement from XRP's recent high.
This may be XRP's last real chance for a rebound; if it fails to break through successfully, it may fall back to current levels or even completely enter a bear market. With the highs consistently declining, XRP has formed a clear descending triangle structure, and the trend has been weakening over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the shrinking trading volume has exacerbated market anxiety, indicating that even as the price approaches key areas, market participation is gradually waning.
Currently, the RSI is slightly below 45, reflecting that XRP is in a neutral to bearish state. However, if the bulls can push the price into the resistance range of $2.25 to $2.26—an area overlapping with the 50-day and 100-day EMA—this could break the downward pattern and initiate a potential reversal structure. This would not only alleviate current downward pressure but could also reignite momentum for XRP to rise to $2.50 or even higher levels.
Shiba Inu dives.
The price of Shiba Inu (SHIB) has significantly fallen below a key support area—this support has previously been the basis for rebounds but is now facing bearish pressure, and the technical situation is increasingly severe. The current price is about $0.00001230, having fallen below the local trendline support, indicating a clear weakening of short-term market sentiment.
This is a standard bearish signal. The current price is firmly running below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, and all three averages are in a downward trend, further validating the bearish dominance. More critically, the support lost around $0.00001300 in mid-May means the price may be approaching the next key psychological and structural support level of $0.00001000.
The recent decline has been accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, indicating rising selling pressure and reinforcing the effectiveness of this downward trend. The RSI is currently at 43, approaching the oversold area. Although there is a potential for a technical rebound, there remains a risk of continued bottom-seeking in the short term.
From a broader perspective, since peaking at the end of 2023, SHIB has remained in a long-term descending channel, and the recent trend is merely a continuation and confirmation of this trend.
Without new catalysts (whether technical or fundamental) to boost demand, sellers can maintain control. In the coming days, if SHIB fails to rebound and close above $0.00001300, momentum traders may take large short positions, accelerating the drop to $0.00001000.
The price of Shiba Inu may experience a mid-term rebound or continue to drop towards several-month lows, depending on the price's reaction at this level. This level serves as both a psychological threshold and a previously active demand area. Caution is still advised. Clearly, Shiba Inu has lost another important support point, making upward movement more challenging than before.
Bitcoin stabilizes.
After a significant pullback from a recent high of around $112,000, Bitcoin has initially stabilized and successfully returned above the 50-day moving average, currently trading around $104,000. Today's strong intraday rebound shows that the bulls have not exited the battle, and there is still some upward momentum in the market. From a technical standpoint, the 50-day moving average serves as an important dynamic support level. If the price can maintain above it, Bitcoin is likely to experience further rebounds.
In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI is currently rising from a neutral area after experiencing an overbought correction, suggesting short-term upside potential. Particularly noteworthy is the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is highly sensitive to short-term trends. If Bitcoin can decisively break through this moving average, it could trigger an acceleration in the rebound. Once the bulls add to their positions, the price is likely to quickly test the local resistance zone between $107,000 and $108,000.
However, the current rebound does not yet have a clear confirmation signal of a reversal. To achieve a true trend reversal, Bitcoin must maintain above the 50-day moving average in the coming trading days and break strongly above the 26-day EMA. Otherwise, if the rebound is weak, there remains a risk of a pullback to the $100,000 mark—this level is not only a key psychological support but also coincides with the level that turned into support after breaking the previous high in April, having strong technical significance.
Trading volume remains an issue. Given that the recent rise has not been accompanied by a significant expansion in volume, we have reason to question the market's confidence in this rebound. We must observe how the moving average levels determine market sentiment until Bitcoin either drops below $100,000 or experiences a surge in volume. It is still unclear whether Bitcoin's short-term bullish recovery will evolve into a comprehensive breakout or merely be a dead cat bounce. The bulls have not exhausted their energy, and Bitcoin is back on track.
