On the daily chart, a small bullish bar with a lower shadow indicates that the closing price is higher than the opening price, but recent trading volume has decreased, showing a weakening upward momentum. After two big players clashed online the day before, the two tokens plummeted, testing the lower support at 100333.
Next are the non-farm payroll data and Trump's call for another rate cut. Bitcoin rebounded nearly 5000 points, but has not been able to reach the 106000 resistance level, indicating strong resistance above. The market is erratic with both long and short squeezes.
The market is currently in a state of consolidation, and some analysts predict that prices may continue to rise based on funding rate data, but overall market enthusiasm is moderate, lacking strong upward momentum.
Macroeconomic data (such as US non-farm payroll data) and geopolitical events (such as the conflict between Musk and Trump) affect market sentiment, increasing market volatility and uncertainty.
Recently, institutional investor behavior has shown a two-tier differentiation, with some continuously buying (for example, some institutions increasing their BTC and ETH holdings) and others reducing their positions (for example, CME reducing holdings). Some listed companies (such as Japan's Remixpoint) are increasing their BTC holdings, showing recognition of BTC's long-term value among institutions. This brings more uncertainty to the market in the short term, leading to a fluctuating pattern with strong support on the downside and resistance on the upside.
Market volatility is intensifying, with multiple large price fluctuations occurring in a short time. High-leverage trading has led to frequent liquidation events, affecting all, indicating high market risk. Price breakthroughs and pullbacks occur frequently, showing fierce competition between bulls and bears. Recent trading needs to be cautious and pay attention to controlling speed! Beware of crashes.
After the large token dropped to a low of 2380, it rebounded nearly 100 points but failed to break through the 2550 short-term resistance level, indicating that the upward momentum is sluggish. The downward space seems to have opened up, but with the news and macroeconomic situation, whether the market can break through resistance and develop upwards is still unknown. In fact, the reduced trading volume over the weekend indicates a greater tendency for downward fluctuations.
Currently, the price of the second token is fluctuating around 2480, and some analysts believe it is a rebound after the sharp decline on the 6th, lacking reversal significance. Further observation is needed to see if the price can break and stabilize above the 2550 resistance level.
Market liquidity may decrease over the weekend, and price fluctuations may intensify. The behavior of large institutional investors is diversified, with some continuing to buy (BlackRock and Grayscale increasing their ETH holdings) while others are cautious or reducing their positions (CME reducing holdings).
Recently, trading platforms have adjusted their risk control measures for ETH, such as adjusting leverage ratios. Some projects (like ME) have experienced severe price fluctuations in the short term, indicating active speculative sentiment in the market.
On-chain data shows that some large addresses continue to trade ETH, which has a significant impact on the market. ETF inflow and outflow data indicate complex market sentiment and some uncertainty. This results in fluctuations in ETH's short-term price.
High-leverage trading has led to frequent liquidation events (the total liquidation amount across the network reached 506 million USD), indicating high market risk. Large trading actions (such as whale addresses selling ETH) have a significant impact on prices.
Summary: Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a period of consolidation, with conflicting bullish and bearish forces, and the risk of short-term volatility still exists.
Institutional investor behavior is diversified, and macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, as well as market sentiment, have a significant impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
Investors need to operate cautiously, closely monitor market dynamics, and implement effective risk control.
Youmi's operational advice:
The next two days have poor weekend liquidity, and the main players will basically not make significant moves, focusing on a fluctuating trend until Sunday night to Monday when the US stock market opens, during which significant volatility is likely to occur.
If it can stabilize at 105000/2500 within the next two days, then there is room for further price increase. If it cannot break through, there may be further fluctuations downwards over the weekend. First, watch the strength of the pullback, paying attention to the support levels at 103500/2430.
Short-term resistance levels are 106500/2550, and support levels are 101500/2350. Today, mainly focus on high selling and low buying.
