Ethereum (ETH) Cost-Effective Buying Range Analysis

1. Core Indicator Analysis

Indicator Current Price Market Meaning ETH Realized Price (Blue Line) $2,023 The average on-chain cost price of all circulating ETH, representing the overall market holding cost. Once it falls below, it enters the 'High Cost-Effectiveness Range'. ETH 2.0 Deposits RP (Red Line) $2,387 The average cost price of staked ETH. Once it falls below, stakers will face losses, and selling pressure will decrease (tending towards locking in or increasing positions).

2. Historical Patterns and Cost-Effectiveness Ranges

✅ Key Conclusions

Below $2,387 (Red Line):

Stakers begin to incur losses, selling pressure decreases, and historically, support has formed multiple times at this position. Suitable for building positions in batches (but beware of short-term fluctuations).

Below $2,023 (Blue Line):

Extreme cost-effectiveness range. Since 2016, all positions that have fallen below the blue line have been long-term bottoms (green dashed box). The historical maximum drawdown has decreased from **-74% (2018) to -27% (2025)**, indicating an increase in institutional support.

$1,500-$2,000:

If ETH falls below the blue line, it may retreat to $1,500-$1,800 (referencing 2022 data), but losses can be controlled (≤30%).

3. Historical Drawdown Data Verification

Date Realized Price Lowest Price Drawdown Subsequent Performance 2018.08.11 $325 $85 -74% Bear market bottom, later entered a bull market 2022.06.09 $1,702 $993 -42% Rebounded to $1,800+ within 6 months 2025.03.26 $2,034 $1,472 -27% Rebounded to $3,000+ within 3 months (ETF expectation catalyst)

📌 Pattern Summary:

Drawdown amounts have been decreasing year by year (institutional/ETF funds providing support). Holding for more than one year after falling below the blue line has a nearly 100% profit probability (but one must endure short-term losses).

4. Current Operational Strategy

🔵 Buying Suggestions for Different Fund Types

Fund Type Recommended Strategy Long-term Funds Buy in batches below $2,387, increase positions below $2,023, target holding until the 2025 bull market ($5,000+). Medium-term Funds If it drops to $2,000-$2,200, consider a 50% position, and use remaining funds to top up at $1,800. Short-term Funds Watch and confirm the support at $2,387 is valid before intervening (to avoid short-term volatility losses).

5. Ultimate Buying Signal

Ideal Bottom Buying Range: $1,800-$2,000 (10%-20% below the blue line). Confirmation Signals: Large on-chain addresses increasing holdings (referencing Glasscoin data). ETF funds returning to net inflows (if applicable). Weekly closing above $2,023 stabilizing.