Ethereum Short-Term Pressure: Can Bears Break Through the Bullish Defense Line?
After a week of high-level fluctuations and declines, the price triggered profit-taking around $2450, and then found tentative support around $2400, but with limited chips. The current market focus is: Will the $2530 resistance level become the starting point for a bearish counterattack?
1. Daily Pattern: Pressure Level Effective, Downward Risk Intensifies
The daily K-line shows that after the price reached $2530, it was suppressed by the EMA15 trend fast line and fell back, confirming the effectiveness of short-term resistance. Combined with technical indicators, the bearish signals are becoming increasingly evident:
• Key Levels:
◦ Resistance: The EMA15 trend line ($2530) and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($2560) create double pressure;
◦ Support: The dense area of the trend indicator at $2330-$2280; if lost, it will open up greater downward space;
• Technical Indicators:
◦ MACD shows a top divergence, with the red bars continuously shrinking, indicating a depletion of bullish momentum;
◦ DIF and DEA approaching the zero axis, with K-line consolidating at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands ($2430), with a risk of breaking down imminent.
2. Four-Hour Game: After Five Waves Surge, Bears Dominate the Rhythm
The four-hour K-line shows that the main force completed four rounds of high-level liquidation after a five-wave surge, and retail investors' chasing up positions were liquidated. The current price is suppressed by the EMA120 trend line ($2520), with weak rebounds:
• Key Levels:
◦ The upper $2560 is a strong resistance at the trend top; if it cannot break through, the bears will take the initiative;
• Technical Indicators:
◦ MACD green bars' shrinking slows, but still below the zero axis, indicating that the bearish momentum has not been completely released;
◦ The Bollinger Bands open downward, with the price falling back after touching the middle band, indicating a high possibility of a false bullish signal on rebounds.
3. Trading Strategy: Focus on Shorting, Avoid Chasing Bull Traps
Given the bearish dominant pattern, the following strategies are recommended:
• Shorting Timing: When the price rebounds to the $2530-$2560 range and meets resistance, lightly position short orders, with stop-loss set above $2560, aiming for $2430 and $2330;
• Risk Warning:
◦ Do not blindly catch the bottom in the short term to avoid being lured by the main force;
◦ Those holding short positions can move their stop-loss closer to the cost price to lock in profits;
◦ Pay attention to the $2330 support level; if broken, the probability of accelerated decline increases significantly.
Strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline to avoid losses in a volatile market.
