Altcoins have plummeted again, this time the drop is particularly severe, but actually the overall trend is still the routine we mentioned long ago, just that the sell-off is more intense than expected.

We can understand this from a different perspective:

1. What was the market like before May?

At that time, the overall rhythm was "decline - rebound - continue to decline", with bears dominating the market. Many people couldn't hold on anymore and began to cut losses to exit. There were also some who, seeing the rebound, excitedly chased the highs, only to end up buying at the peak and getting stuck.

On May 29, the market suddenly experienced a large surge, along with external favorable news (such as policies, project announcements, etc.), many people thought a bull market had arrived, confidence surged, and they rushed in to increase their positions, determined not to sell. What was the result? They were hit by another wave of selling, which is a typical case of "pump and dump".

We have previously warned that once most people in the market start to firmly add positions, the main forces may turn around and short. The same goes for Bitcoin; after it rises to a key position, many people think it will break through, so they rush in to buy, and then they get "stabbed" and brought down again.

2. Where might the bulls truly admit defeat?

We believe it may take BTC's price to drop below 100,000 for the market sentiment to truly collapse. But precisely because this level is so critical, the main forces won't easily break through it. If there is a rapid drop below, it could be a good thing, indicating that a washout might be happening, and the subsequent rebound could be stronger.

If the market sluggishly climbs up, at most it will rebound to around 109,500, and that will be the time for you to "run away", not an opportunity to chase highs.

If the market really drops to around 97,000, and then consolidates for a few days before rising, that would instead be a rhythm of "washing out floating positions before breaking through". By then, it would be more likely to truly break through the resistance level of 109,500.

Currently, ETH is rebounding, just hitting a previous key platform level (which used to be "support turned resistance"). This level is hard to get through; if you are trading short-term, it's advisable to reduce your position here.

But if you are a long-term holder, there’s no need to be too anxious. Even if it really drops back to around 2,200, that would still be considered a "maximum pullback", which is not a big issue. Moreover, it has already completed half of the adjustment space, as long as the rhythm does not become chaotic, it may stabilize quickly.