Pay attention to the short position opened at 2450–70 by $ETH . If the non-farm payroll data is released and the price breaks 2530, unconditional stop loss!
Short term 1-2 weeks, oscillating bias bearish: Before the release of non-farm payroll data, the expected range is 2400-2500. If the data is positive, the rebound upper limit is 2750; if negative, it may test 2110.
Bull-bear boundary:
Bullish reversal condition: Recover 2500 and stabilize, break 2750, 200-day moving average.
Continuation drop signal: If the daily close is below 2432, the target is down to 2260.
Key observation points:
>- Non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve statements.
> - SEC ruling on Grayscale ETF is the biggest short-term risk.
> - Monitor on-chain whale movements focusing on the 2400 cost area support.
Key indicators:
1. Moving average system
MA(5) 2,464.19 short-term support → Current price above MA5 2482 > 2464
MA(30) 2516.85 core resistance → Maximum pressure point above
Bull-bear pattern: Price oscillating in the 2464~2516 range, still weak rebound until breaking MA30
2. Volume signal
Latest VOL: 403 million < MA(5): 435 million → Insufficient rebound volume, beware of false breakouts
Funding rate 0.00166% neutral → No strong bullish or bearish sentiment
3. Liquidation risk
Long position liquidation 2.0594 million vs short position liquidation 159.6 thousand
→ The market still has long leverage liquidation pressure, favorable for shorts
Operational strategy
Do not increase positions, choose to be cautious
Hold existing short positions, move stop loss up to 2517 (above MA30)
Target take profit 2432, after breaking watch 2390
Basis - Insufficient volume makes it difficult for the rebound to continue - Non-farm payroll data is imminent at 20:30, avoid two-way volatility risk
Conditions for aggressive strategy
Only increase positions when the following conditions are met simultaneously:
Price rebounds to the 2500-2516 range (MA30 pressure area)
RSI(1h) >70 (confirmation of overbought)
VOL continues to shrink (MA5 volume line downwards)
→ After increasing positions, total stop loss 2530, target 2390 risk-reward ratio 1:4
Before the data release, maintain existing positions and do not open new positions
Non-farm > expected | Hold short, break 2432 increase position 2390 → 2350
Non-farm < expected | Close short, reverse to long | 2516 → 2580
If the price breaks 2530, unconditional stop loss and switch to a wave-long position!
Key reminder, the current price is in the rebound exhaustion zone, but the reversal is not confirmed, non-farm payroll data may trigger ±5% volatility, prioritize preserving capital!
