Solana (SOL) is at a critical crossroads, with the price correcting from a high point, and short-term support is precarious. On one side is a massive capital outflow from on-chain data, while on the other, some are still calling for a mid-term target of $200.
This is not a divergence, but rather the market is 're-betting'.
1. SOL's drop to $140 is not a collapse of sentiment, but a liquidity imbalance.
In the past week, the price of SOL has continuously corrected from the $160 line, nearing below $150 at one point.
It seems like just a normal correction, but the key is:
Behind this wave of decline is not the selling pressure illustrated by the candlestick chart, but real capital is running away.
What does the data say?
According to Artemis data, Solana chain has seen a net capital outflow of over ten million dollars in the past 48 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) has absorbed about 7.5 million dollars in net inflow.
The capital flow of cross-chain bridges has also sharply decreased, indicating that users have not only withdrawn SOL but are not planning to switch back to other chains immediately.
Glassnode's Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has surged to the third highest in history, indicating that long-term 'sleeping coins' are starting to circulate — not new money coming in, but old players adjusting their positions or selling.
In short: Confidence is withdrawing, and buying pressure is not strong enough.
2. SOL's technical pattern: It must hold 140 to have a future.
From a technical chart perspective, SOL's short-term pattern is testing a key defense line:
Support range: $141 to $145, this is a previously dense transaction area; if it can't hold, the space below could head straight for $130-$135;
Resistance range: $151 to $153, repeated rebounds have failed, indicating that the short-term top has not yet broken through;
The RSI indicator has fallen into the oversold region, and a technical rebound may occur in the short term, but momentum is weak.
However, don't rush to be pessimistic. The weekly chart shows that SOL is still in a large **'cup and handle pattern'**, and if it holds around 140, a rebound to 160-170 would be a natural rhythm.
What is the cup and handle pattern?
In simple terms, it is a round arc adjustment that is first deep and then shallow, which will enter a strong upward channel after breaking the neckline. In other words — as long as the pattern is intact, there is still hope for a strong upward attack.
3. Is the fantasy of $300 still realistic?
We need to face a question: Is it really reasonable to rise to $200 again this year?
In theory, if:
No systemic risk in the macro environment
Shitcoin total supply continues to flood.
Solana continues to expand its user and developer ecosystem.
On-chain applications are recovering in growth rate.
Institutions continue to intervene.
So breaking through the historical high is not impossible.
But what about now?
On-chain data cooling, decreased user activity, falling DEX transaction volumes, and continued shrinkage of NFT activity, even 'star projects' like Jupiter and Helium are facing traffic bottlenecks.
Not to mention, Solana still has many historical 'landmines' regarding chain stability and technical forks.
So, the $250 target theory is valid, but reality is far off, and a new explosive narrative must emerge to justify this valuation expectation.
4. Centralized Judgment: This drop is essentially a test of faith for Solana.
Solana fell to 140, causing panic among many. But the real issue is not the price, but rather:
The market is starting to question whether it is 'the one that can challenge Ethereum.'
Don't forget, earlier this year, Solana gained traction as one of the hottest L1s with low fees + fast execution, with the NFT sector, DePIN sector, and meme ecosystem all gaining momentum.
The issue now is not a lack of technology or ecology, but rather that attention and confidence have scattered. Traders are leaving, capital is flowing out, and developers are migrating; this is the real challenge SOL must face.
5. Summary: Breaking 140 is both a crisis and a buying opportunity.
If 140 holds, a short-term rebound to 160-170 is possible;
If it breaks through 140, the next stop may see 130 or even lower;
The medium-term still sees a positive outlook for the $250 target, but a new 'explosive narrative' must emerge to support sentiment and capital inflow;
At this time, it is not advisable to chase highs and sell lows; waiting for key support confirmation or trend reversal is a more mature choice.
