As a professional cryptocurrency trader who borrowed 60,000 yuan to enter the market in 2019, after 2,160 days of market baptism, I want to talk to you about the "survival logic verified with real money". The following content is based on full-cycle trading practice (long/short/ultra-short/band full coverage), directly hitting the risk minefields that retail investors are most likely to step on:

1. [Core logic of trading: protect the principal first, then talk about profit]

1. The Iron Law of Capital Management

  • Position control formula for the first 6 years: Single investment ≤ (total principal × 10%) ÷ market volatility coefficient

  • The truth about the market: “It takes a thousand times the profit to go from 10,000 to 10 million, but only one liquidation to go from 10 million to 10,000”

  • Counter-intuitive operation: When a single profit exceeds the account by 30%, 50% of the profit is forcibly withdrawn to the "risk isolation account"


2. The practical version of the 10,000-hour rule

  • Effective review ≠ data statistics: You need to complete the three-dimensional analysis of "emotional trajectory recording + capital flow deduction + banker behavior simulation" every day

  • Cycle warning: Major risk nodes will appear every 6 years (such as the 312 incident in 2020 and the LUNA incident in 2022), and "black swan hedging positions" need to be pre-allocated

2. [The lifeline of contract trading: the three levels of stop loss]

1. Basic rule: hard stop loss

  • Stop loss must be set when placing an order: BTC/ETH and other mainstream currencies stop loss ≤ 2.5%, altcoins ≤ 1.2% (dynamically adjusted according to the ATR indicator)

  • Anti-human operation: When the market hits 0.3% before the stop loss line, close the position manually in advance (avoid pin-sweeping orders)


2. Advanced rule: logical stop loss

  • When a trend reversal signal appears (such as falling below the 200-day moving average + MACD crossover), you will be forced to exit regardless of profit or loss

  • Real case: In 2023, a player held an order for 17 days because he was optimistic about the project, and eventually lost 8.9 million U


3. Advanced rule: state stop loss

  • When the stop loss / take profit ratio is less than 1:1.5 for 3 consecutive orders, the "trading cooling-off period" will be activated immediately (minimum 24 hours, maximum 7 days)

  • Fund management formula: Maximum loss threshold for a single day = Account equity × (1- "Win rate × Profit and loss ratio")

3. [Anti-humanity operation guide: It is never the market that defeats you]

1. Three-step approach to dealing with losses

  • Hour 1: Practice “emotional isolation” (turn off trading software, meditate/exercise)

  • Hour 24: Complete the “anatomy of a failed order” (marking greed/fear trigger points with different colors)

  • Hour 72: Formulate a "correction plan" (limit the three new conditions that must be met for the next order)


2. Subjective judgment of immune agents

  • Three questions to ask before opening a position:
    ▫ If the market goes in the opposite direction, what is the maximum loss I can bear?
    ▫ Is the decision-making at this moment based on data or emotion?
    ▫ If I were a short seller, how would I view the current trend?

  • Practical tools: Use three-dimensional data such as "long-short position ratio", "funding rate" and "position change" to replace "I think"

4. [Avoidance Guide for Newbies: Those Hidden Market Truths]

  • Stay away from the "100x coin legend": 99% of the stories of getting rich quickly are "baits" put out by the dealers, and the experts are doing "deterministic arbitrage"

  • Beware of the "leverage comfort zone": When you feel that 50x leverage is safe, it is the beginning of risk out of control (refer to the 2021 BTC liquidation data)

  • The ultimate survival rule: always keep 20% of your funds in a "fiat currency account" to "see the essence" in a bear market


Conclusion:
The cryptocurrency world is not a "technical arena" but a "touchstone of human nature". Most of the contract players who soared in the bull market fell in the last callback before dawn. Remember: the real stable profit is to make "stop loss" a muscle memory and make "respect for the market" a trading belief.

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