0.03% rebound means reversal? Don't be naive! Bollinger Bands lock in the downtrend
Key market signals:
Continuous capital outflow
Institutions like Grayscale have seen a net outflow of $320 million from ETFs in a single week (data source: Farside)
The weekly increase in exchange BTC balances is 1.8% (latest on-chain data from CryptoQuant)
Regulatory updates
The SEC has issued "Wells notices" to multiple exchanges (confirmed by Wall Street Journal)
CFTC position report shows: institutional short positions increased by 37%
Miner activity anomalies
Miner wallet balances dropped to 1.8 million BTC (a two-year low)
Suspected miners transferred over 5,000 BTC to exchanges in a single day
Technical deep dive:
Price structure
The daily chart has been constrained by the strong resistance zone of 2468-2480 for 6 consecutive candlesticks
Yesterday's upper shadow reached $28 (accounting for 62% of the day's volatility)
Key indicators
Moving average system in bearish arrangement:
MA7 (2521) crossed below MA30 (2564) forming a death cross
MA120 (2415) is about to be tested
Bollinger Bands indicator:
Band width expanded to $110 (volatility increased)
Price has been running along the lower band for 14 hours
MACD indicator:
The two lines are at the -120 level
The histogram has not shown convergence for 5 days
Volume characteristics:
Volume during downtrends is 43% higher than during uptrends
Buying pressure is mainly concentrated in the 2350-2380 defense zone
Operational strategy suggestions:
Trend traders
Current price (2451) can establish a 20% short position
Add positions in batches at 2475/2495 (total position ≤ 50%)
Set stop-loss uniformly above 2521 (confirmation by 1-hour close)
Target levels: 2380→2312→2250 (Fibonacci extension levels)
Short-term traders
Oversold rebound opportunity (when RSI < 30):
Entry: below 2430 (confirmation by 5-minute bullish candle)
Take profit: in the range of 2450-2460
Stop-loss: 2420 (below previous low)
Key observation points:
CME gap position: 2385 (gap not filled this week)
On-chain data: Strong resistance wall of 18,300 BTC exists above 2600
Options market: 24,000 Put open contracts surged by 300%
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