As of June 6, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) shows a significant correction trend, with the price falling from a high of $105,000 to around $101,500, a drop of over 3% in 24 hours, bouncing slightly after hitting a low of $100,330, fluctuating in the $101,700-102,000 range. The technical analysis indicates intense bullish-bearish contention: the daily MACD shows a top divergence and the histogram remains negative, with bearish momentum prevailing; however, the 4-hour RSI (38) and KDJ indicators show signs of oversold recovery, indicating the possibility of a technical rebound in the short term. The key support level has shifted down to the psychological level of $99,000-100,000, and if it breaks, it may trigger accelerated programmatic selling; the resistance above is concentrated in the $105,000-106,500 range.

The main reason for market volatility is the accumulation of multiple risk events: the public split between Trump and Musk has triggered a political black swan effect, leading to a 12% crash in associated cryptocurrencies (such as TRUMP coin) and exacerbating market panic. Meanwhile, institutional holdings are noticeably divergent—BlackRock added $357 million in BTC in one day, but whales on platforms like Hyperliquid faced over $130 million in long liquidation, and miner selling pressure increased by 5%, significantly stressing short-term liquidity.

On a macro level, the market is focused on the U.S. non-farm payroll data tonight; if the unemployment rate breaks 4.5%, it may strengthen rate cut expectations, providing support for BTC; meanwhile, China's tightening regulation on cryptocurrency exchanges is expected to impact 10% of trading volume, further suppressing short-term risk appetite. In the medium to long term, the Bitcoin halving cycle effect and institutional allocation demand (such as BlackRock's IBIT holdings reaching $69.8 billion) still provide fundamental support, but caution is needed regarding regulatory compliance pressure and the diversion effect of competing public chains like Solana.

In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to focus on the breakout direction of the $99,000-105,000 range in the short term; if the key support is effectively broken, one should guard against the risk of sliding to $94,200; medium to long-term investors may consider accumulating at lows, with a target price maintaining expectations of $120,000-150,000.