$ETH : Analysis and Trade Signals

After a drop from 2640 to 2379, ETHUSDT is now recovering to around 2460. However, the overall picture remains bearish: open interest is decreasing, the basis is negative, and taker sell volume dominates.

Scenario 1: Short

Entry: 2480–2500 (on a pullback to resistance)

Stop-loss: 2525

Take-profit: 2385

Alternative take-profit: 2300 if downside momentum increases

Confirmation: low volume during the bounce, bearish MACD on higher timeframes

Scenario 2: Long (higher risk)

Entry: above 2525, only if the breakout is supported by strong volume

Stop-loss: 2480

Take-profit: 2610

Condition: a strong bullish impulse is required; otherwise, downside risk remains

Observations:

– Open interest is declining, indicating traders are exiting

– Majority of positions are long, increasing the risk of short pressure

– MACD has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal on the daily chart

At this stage, the setup favors a short position, but confirmation is essential. Avoid entering without a clear signal.