Elon Musk's warning has a certain degree of reasonableness. Large-scale tariffs could disrupt the global trade order, increase business costs, suppress consumption and investment, and indeed may drag the U.S. economy into recession. Previous contractions in U.S. GDP have also confirmed the instability of the economy. However, economic trends are influenced by various factors; if subsequent policy adjustments are timely, it is not impossible to avoid a recession, but the risks should not be underestimated.