One second they were still on the White House lawn, calling each other brothers, and the next second Musk used a "Kill Bill" poster to hang a knife on Twitter - this dramatic breakup between the Silicon Valley Iron Man and Trump tore apart not only the plastic friendship between politicians and businessmen, but also the life-and-death game between the new and old capital camps in front of a 5 trillion fiscal bill. When SpaceX orders were cut, Tesla subsidies were reduced, and NASA nominations were rejected, what kind of interests were hidden behind Musk's anger? And what kind of political game did Trump's rare silence indicate?
A seven-day change: from a guest of honor at the White House to a Twitter nemesis
With a Kill Bill poster and a call to "bomb Congress," Musk ignited the political powder keg in the most Musk way. In the first week of June 2025, the tech mogul launched a Twitter campaign with 200 million followers to attack the "Big Beautiful Bill," accusing it of causing the U.S. national debt to soar by $5 trillion. Trump, the protagonist of the attack, chose to remain silent abnormally, only forwarding an old post from Musk six months ago. This "no challenge" attitude is even more bizarre than a direct confrontation.
The fuse of the split: four landmines of interests that were stepped on
NASA Administrator Nomination Attacks Musk's SpaceX ally Jared Isaacman, who was directly kicked out by the White House in the NASA Administrator nomination. People familiar with the matter revealed that Musk had invested tens of millions of dollars in lobbying for the nomination and was furious privately: "I donated hundreds of millions to the election, and this is it?"
Starlink order Waterloo SpaceX was originally determined to win the FAA air control order but was unexpectedly rejected. The government pressed the pause button on the grounds of "national security risks". The order is worth more than $12 billion, accounting for 18% of SpaceX's expected revenue in 2025.
The Tesla subsidy cut bill reduced the tax benefits for electric vehicles by 60%, which directly hit Tesla in the back. Republican lawmakers publicly mocked: "Musk opposes it? It's for his own business!" Data shows that if this policy is implemented, Tesla's profits in 2026 will be reduced by about $8 billion.
Musk originally hoped to serve as the Minister of Government Efficiency for another 130 days as a "special employee", but was rejected by the White House on the grounds of "personnel adjustment". This means that the agendas he tried to promote through his political identity, such as Starlink and AI supervision, have all been stranded.
The Devil in the 5 Trillion Bill: A Feast for the Rich and a Chopping Knife for the Poor
Musk's criticism of the bill as "ugly" is not groundless. This 2,700-page fiscal bill is essentially a bloody game of wealth redistribution:
A carnival for the rich
Permanently extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, expected to cut $4.2 trillion in taxes for the wealthy over the next decade
The estate tax threshold has been raised to $25 million. Only 1% of the rich will benefit, but they will take away 25% of the tax cut bonus.
Wall Street financial transaction tax abolished, saving investment banks $80 billion a year
The survival crisis of the poor
Cutting Medicare subsidies by $600 billion, 9 million low-income people may lose their health insurance
Food stamp program cut by $260 billion, about 30 million families face food shortages
Education funding cuts by $180 billion will reduce 250,000 public school teacher jobs
The nuclear crisis of national debt
The deficit has increased by $3.8 trillion in ten years, and the national debt to GDP ratio will reach 125%
Annual interest payments exceed $1 trillion, more than the defense budget and social security spending
Bridgewater Fund's Dalio complained: "The ship is about to hit a reef, and the captain is still arguing about turning left or right?"
The decisive battle between the new and old capital camps: Musk's calculations and Trump's silence
This political farce, seemingly a personal feud, is actually a decisive battle between the new economy capital and traditional capital:
Musk's triple calculation
The provisions of the Commercial Interests Defense War Act, such as the adjustment of space policy and the reduction of electric vehicle subsidies, directly threaten the cash flow of Tesla and SpaceX. It is estimated that if the bill is passed, Musk's company will lose more than $50 billion in the next five years.
Political influence game As a representative of the new technology elite, Musk tried to break the monopoly of traditional capital on policy through political participation. The essence of this attack on the bill is to declare war on Wall Street and traditional manufacturing interest groups.
Reshaping public image From "Silicon Valley Iron Man" to "Political Warrior", Musk tried to consolidate grassroots support through populist operations and pave the way for future political layout. The call for "phone bombing Congress" on Twitter received more than 5 million responses within 24 hours.
Four mysteries behind the King of Understanding's silence
Although the tax cuts in the vote-balancing bill are good for the rich, cutting health care and food stamps may lose grassroots votes. Trump needs to find a balance between the 1% and the 99%.
Behind the funding dependency bill are huge political donations from Wall Street and traditional industries. If Trump publicly supports Musk, he may lose a key financial backer.
Election strategy: With the 2028 election approaching, Trump does not want to break with the tech upstarts too early, so he remains silent to leave room for the future.
Debt Trap Trump is aware of the dangers of a $5 trillion deficit, but for short-term political gain, he had to acquiesce to the passage of the bill. Silence is the best cover.
Ending prediction: No winners, only leeks
The ultimate losers in this battle between big men are always ordinary people:
Musk: After playing politics for half a year, he offended both parties. After returning to Tesla, the stock price plummeted by 10%, and the market value evaporated by 45 billion US dollars.
Trump: If the bill is rejected, the economic agenda of his second term will be ruined; if the bill is passed, he will be branded as the "President of the Rich"
Ordinary people: Either lose health insurance and food stamps, or bear the heavy burden of national debt and become the final payer
When Musk waved the banner of populism on Twitter and Trump responded to the political crisis with silence, the capital war triggered by the 5 trillion bill was essentially another harvest of ordinary people by the elite. As one netizen commented: "Two big guys are fighting, one spends money to buy air, and the other cuts taxes and creates a huge debt - but the ones who pay the bill are always you and me who swipe the Twitter."
The same is true in the cryptocurrency world. When you are still worried about short-term ups and downs, the big guys #美国加征关税