Beware! Listed companies' crypto treasury may repeat the mistakes of GBTC, igniting an industry crisis

Crypto treasury has become a new favorite for listed companies, with at least 124 companies incorporating Bitcoin into their financial strategies, some also allocating altcoins such as Ethereum, Sol, and XRP. Among them, MicroStrategy holds 581,000 Bitcoins, with a market value of $61.05 billion, while the company's market value reaches $107.49 billion, a premium of nearly 1.76 times, attracting many imitators, such as Twenty One supported by SoftBank and Tether, Nakamoto Corp founded by David Bailey, and Trump Media, which plans to raise $2.44 billion.

However, industry insiders are sounding the alarm, as these companies' models are highly similar to the Grayscale GBTC, which had previously caused multiple institutions to implode. GBTC had long-term premiums of 120% due to a lack of investment channels, attracting institutions like BlockFi and 3AC to leverage arbitrage. After the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in 2021, GBTC's premium turned negative, leading to losses and failures for these institutions, becoming the trigger for the 2022 crypto industry crisis.

Currently, listed companies are forming a 'Bitcoin treasury flywheel'—rising stock prices → financing → buying coins → boosting confidence → rising stock prices again. Standard Chartered has warned that a 22% drop in Bitcoin prices could trigger corporate sell-offs, with half of the holdings below $90,000 incurring losses. On June 4, JPMorgan plans to allow clients to use cryptocurrency ETFs as collateral for loans, which may accelerate this cycle. Whether this model will trigger a new systemic crisis requires urgent attention.