This matter is indeed quite interesting, stirring up the market in chaos. Binance has even personally issued 'red head documents' to crack down on score manipulation, demonstrating its power.
A friend promoted it quite early (in March), and the institutional background (Pantera, Jump) is indeed solid, making it one of the core endorsements of the project. Its core gameplay is simple: use the highest frequency of biometric verification (daily palmprint scans) to filter 'real people', and then package this group of 'real users' to sell (or 'bring to') exchanges as a bargaining chip for listing.


Let's break down its logic and key game points:
Core KPI: Real users. The project team bets that no matter how Binance (or other major exchanges) changes its listing standards, 'bringing in a large number of real users' will always be a trump card-level KPI. Traditional airdrops and IEO score manipulation studios are rampant, making it difficult to distinguish between true and false, and exchanges are annoyed. Humanity aims to use the extremely high threshold of 'daily palmprint scans' (much stricter than other zero-cost methods like Pi, Avive) to prove 'all my users are real people'. The project team's profit logic:
Expected listing fulfillment: The main revenue for the project team comes from the liquidity gains of the project token (such as $HUMANITY?) after it is listed on exchanges (ideally on major exchanges like Binance). The specific form may be: the project team's own token supply.
Exchange perpetual contract (Perp) listing fees/incentive sharing.
Over-the-counter (OTC) liquidity arrangement earnings.
Space brought by market capitalization management.
Cost control: The project team's cost is the total expenditure to acquire these real users (development, operation, marketing, etc.). Users are free to participate, but the project team bears the cost of acquiring users. Therefore, the key is to have a large number of high-quality users, so that they can demand a high price when negotiating with exchanges.


Current advantage: Highest real user rate (theoretical). You are right about this. Worldcoin is done with a single scan, and you can do whatever you want afterward. Pi's KYC is slow and mystical. Humanity requires daily palmprint check-ins, which greatly increases the cost and difficulty of large-scale fraud by studios (think about giving each account a real palm or stable device to scan every day). Theoretically, the 'real' tagged user base it accumulates should be the most attractive. Core game point one: Do not expose the witch hunt, or else the 'real' identity will be compromised. This is an extremely important insight! Humanity's entire narrative foundation is 'we have 8 million users (is the number increasing?) distributed across 150 countries, all are real people!' It must firmly assert that this data is clean. Once it itself bans accounts on a large scale, it essentially admits that the data is flawed, and the valuation and bargaining chips in listing negotiations will collapse instantly. Therefore, it will likely be hard-pressed to maintain this '8 million real people' figure, regardless of how many studio accounts are actually mixed in. Core game point two: How to distribute the airdrop? How to control the supply? The larger the number of users, the larger the expected airdrop amount. With 8 million users, even if each receives tokens worth only $10, the total would still be $80 million, which is not small.
Control supply dilemma: It is necessary to maintain the 'purity' of the data without drastically reducing the number of users, while also preventing the airdrop from being excessively released and causing the token price to collapse.


Solution? Lock down the 'claim'! The project team holds a trump card: KYC jurisdiction restrictions + claiming channel restrictions. Strictly control KYC jurisdiction: Only allow users from specific compliant countries/regions to claim. For example, completely exclude users from China and the US (compliance considerations + studios are heavily concentrated there), or only open it to emerging markets with relatively loose regulations. This can instantly cut down more than half of the airdrop claiming volume (especially since a large proportion of studio accounts may be registered in these regions).

Claiming limited to exchange accounts: Similar to Notcoin, airdrops are directly credited to users' designated, KYC-completed exchange accounts (like Binance accounts), bypassing the on-chain wallet step. This step has multiple effects: Compliance: Exchange KYC is stricter, providing a secondary filter for users.
Lower user threshold/churn: Users do not have to deal with wallet gas fees, making it more 'user-friendly' (but also more centralized).
Precisely 'presented' to exchanges: Directly linking users to their exchange accounts perfectly proves, 'Look, all these are active real users I brought to your platform!', with the value directly quantifiable to exchanges. At the same time, user assets are directly deposited in the exchange.
Supply control: Users wanting to sell tokens can basically only sell on that exchange, making it easier for the project team/market makers to control supply. Moreover, retail investors do not have wallet private keys, making short-term operations more passive.


Valuation issue: 1.1 billion is indeed on the high side. For the currently relatively cold market and Binance's cautious listing strategy, an ultimate valuation of 1.1 billion dollars is indeed a bit hot. Recently, Binance prefers to list projects with more 'reasonable' valuations or smaller circulations (of course, having a large number of real users is a trump card). Conclusion and strategy: Expected listing path: Is it difficult to launch directly on Binance spot? Considering the high valuation and market environment, it is more likely to imitate Walrus and first list on Coinbase or leading Korean exchanges (like Upbit, Bithumb). The Korean market is very enthusiastic about new coins, and Coinbase has a liquidity base and a close relationship with Jump, etc. This can test market enthusiasm, while accumulating data and negotiation capital for the final impact on Binance (it would be even better if a batch of Korean/European and American users could be brought over). Binance may first launch contracts (Perp) to test the waters, with spot being the final reward. Focus on 'airdrop details': Determines secondary opportunities! When will the claiming rules be announced? This is the most critical barometer.
Are there strict KYC geographical restrictions? (e.g., excluding China and the US)
Is it mandatory to claim through an exchange account? (like Notcoin)
How high is the claiming threshold? (time lock, task completion, etc.)
What percentage of the total amount does the airdrop occupy?


Easy to short on secondary level: If strict KYC restrictions + receiving in-exchange are adopted, it means the actual amount of airdropped tokens circulating in the market, in the hands of retail investors, may be far lower than the theoretical value (8 million users all claim). The initial circulating supply may be well controlled, and there is a significant possibility of institutions/market makers driving the price up. Before the circulating supply is clarified, the risk of shorting is huge. The current most favorable approach: 'mouth participation' + information arbitrage. 'Mouth participation' is the essence: Zero-cost participation. Study the rules clearly, stick to the attendance (real palmprint users), but the core is to maintain attention, to earn potential airdrop options. Do not invest real money or have excessive expectations.
Keep a close watch on the 'airdrop claiming rules' release: Once the detailed rules are announced and meet expectations (many restrictions, small circulation), and the project chooses to launch on Coinbase/Korean exchanges, then there may be opportunities in the initial secondary market (speculation on real users concept, small circulation).
Ambush expectation for claiming in exchanges: If it is mandatory to bind the exchange account for claiming, then at least during the claiming period, the relevant exchanges (such as Binance, Bybit, etc., which announce support for claiming) will be the focus of attention, and the popularity of platform tokens or related new coins may rise, creating derivative opportunities.
Information arbitrage: High project popularity, significant controversy, mixed information (such as Binance cracking down on score manipulation). Quickly understand the core logic (real user value, airdrop distribution restriction expectations) and clearly output in the community, easy to attract attention (grabbing Kaito's traffic?), the value lies in building influence. At the same time, discern the noise in the market (such as excessive speculation or panic), and utilize emotional differences.


The Humanity Protocol plays a story of 'real person authentication' scarcity, turning it into the most sought-after 'user growth package' by exchanges. The gamble is whether the exchanges recognize this account and are willing to pay for it (high valuation listing). The core challenge for the project team is how to maintain the beautiful figure of '8 million real people' while controlling the actual circulating supply through extremely strict claiming rules, ensuring token value (and their own revenue). As a player, 'zero-cost mouth participation' is the way to go, keeping a close eye on the release of airdrop details is a key node, do not be fooled by daily active data and Binance's 'crackdown red documents', the core is to see how much real money can be distributed to compliant retail investors and how it is distributed. If it really goes to a secondary exchange, with small initial circulation + big hype, there may be opportunities, but risks are also present.