The IPO size of Circle, the world's second-largest stablecoin USDC issuer, has been adjusted three times, and finally issued 34 million shares (including the sale of old shares) at $31 per share, raising $1.1 billion, and the fully diluted valuation rose to $8.1 billion as of June 5, 2025. This adjustment reflects the market's high expectations for the compliant stablecoin track, and its expansion logic can be analyzed from three aspects:

Market demand-driven

Subscription volume exceeded the issuance volume by 25 times, and ARK Fund and BlackRock respectively planned to subscribe for $150 million and 10% of the shares, showing institutional bets on stablecoin infrastructure. The current global stablecoin market size is $253.1 billion, and USDC accounts for 25% of the share. Its compliance advantages (such as regular audits and transparent reserve assets) are more attractive in the context of the implementation of the US and European regulatory frameworks (such as the 'Talent Act' and the EU MiCA).

Strategic layout adjustment

The funds raised are mainly used for technology research and development (such as cross-chain payment networks) and compliance expansion (Asian license application), aiming to strengthen the application of USDC in RWA (real asset tokenization) and cross-border payment scenarios. At the same time, although the revenue sharing agreement with Coinbase compresses profits (net profit of $156 million in 2024), it guarantees the core distribution channel.

Risks and challenges

Highly dependent on US Treasury bond interest income (accounting for 99% of revenue), a Fed rate cut will directly impact earnings. In addition, major shareholders reduced their holdings by 60% of shares (including the CEO cashing out 8%), releasing a short-term cash-out signal; the entry of traditional financial giants such as PayPal may squeeze market share.

Summary: Circle's IPO expansion is both a milestone in the mainstreaming of compliant stablecoins and exposes the risk of its single business model. Its valuation needs to observe the subsequent evolution of the interest rate environment, regulatory policies and competitive landscape.