$ETH Current Price: $104,883.37, 🔻 -0.19% Daily, Sector: PoW Volatility
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🔍 Key Observations
1. 📈 Price & Trend
Price below EMA(7) = $105,387.50, but above:
EMA(25) = $104,647.94
EMA(99) = $96,760.51
Trend bias: short-term bearish inside long-term uptrend.
24h Range: $104,179.00 → $105,542.00 (price near support).
2. 📊 Momentum Indicators
RSI(6): 40.39 → approaching oversold = potential rebound.
MACD:
Histogram: -844.31 (bearish, weakening)
DIF < DEA → bearish momentum fading
3. 📉 Volume
Current: 3,798 BTC
MA(5): 10,851 BTC, MA(10): 14,600 BTC
🚨 Down 65% from MA(5) = major volume collapse
4. 📌 Key Levels
Resistance:
$105,387 (EMA7)
$105,542 (24h high)
$108,061 (swing high)
Support:
$104,647 (EMA25)
$104,179 (24h low)
$103,213 (next swing support)
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📅 Today's Price Prediction
🐂 Bullish Rebound:
Bounce from oversold RSI to $105,387–$105,542
Needs volume surge above 8,000 BTC
🐻 Bearish Continuation:
Breakdown below $104,179 leads to:
🎯 $103,213
🎯 $101,000 (psychological support)
🎯 Likely Range: $104,000 – $105,500
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🧠 Trade Strategy
🟢 1. Buy Setup (Oversold Long)
Entry Zone: $104,500–$104,800
Triggers:
RSI bounce >45
MACD bullish crossover (DIF rising)
Targets:
🎯 $105,200 (partial exit)
🎯 $105,542 (full target)
Stop Loss: Below $104,100
🔴 2. Sell Setup (Breakdown Short)
Entry Zone: On break of $104,179
Triggers:
RSI <38
Volume >5,000 BTC on breakdown
Targets:
🎯 $103,500
🎯 $103,213
Stop Loss: Above $104,500
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⚠️ Critical Market Signals
1. 📉 Volume Collapse
-65% vs MA(5) = lack of big player participation
2. 🌀 EMA Compression Zone
EMA(7) and EMA(25) tight range = breakout imminent
3. 🧭 MACD Convergence
Histogram shrinking = possible bearish exhaustion
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🛡️ Risk Management
Position Size: Max 5% capital
Leverage: Up to 5x for futures; 3x spot margin
Hedging: Use with USDⓈ-M or gold pairs
Confirmation Rule: 1H candle + vol >7,000 BTC = valid breakout/breakdown
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✅ Conclusion
🎯 Focus on longs near $104,500–$104,800 for bounce to $105,500
🔻 Short only if $104,179 breaks with volume >5,000 BTC
💡 Tight range = ideal for 0.5–1% scalps
⚠️ Low volume → high whipsaw risk — scale down position size
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📢 Watch Fed or macro updates for volatility. This is not financial advice.
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