Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged, attempting to break through the 30-day moving average (around $105,000) to establish effective support, but today the price retreated near that moving average, with the market fiercely contending around this key technical level. Although the overall volatility is not large, the dense news flow and clear structural signals indicate that the crypto market is undergoing a deeper integration with traditional finance.
Macro Variables Heat Up:
The U.S. $10 billion Treasury buyback operation has sparked market discussions. Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to alleviate economic stagnation pressures. Meanwhile, Musk has unusually made public statements distancing himself from Trump and warned that the U.S. debt issue is spiraling out of control, calling for a reevaluation of government fiscal spending. Political and economic contestation is intensifying, adding more uncertainty to market trends, and investors need to be vigilant.
The crypto sector welcomes two major milestone events:
1. JPMorgan officially launches Bitcoin and crypto ETF staking and lending services.
This marks the first time traditional financial giants have included crypto assets in their collateral systems, symbolizing mainstream capital's recognition of the compliance and asset attributes of BTC and other crypto assets. It further strengthens market confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.
2. Circle's successful IPO ignites enthusiasm on Wall Street for the stablecoin sector.
Circle, centered around USDC, successfully went public, with an IPO oversubscribed by 25 times, demonstrating strong interest from traditional capital markets in stablecoin infrastructure. With the U.S. stablecoin regulatory bill nearing implementation, stablecoins will become a key hub connecting crypto with traditional finance, and narratives in related sectors (such as DeFi, payments, RWA) are expected to heat up, with related tokens entering a strategic positioning window.
BTC: Technical Analysis and Operational Strategy
BTC currently has strong support in the $93,000-98,000 range, but chips are shifting towards $100,000-105,000, with short-term investors dominating and price fluctuations being sensitive. BTC is under pressure from the descending trend line, showing significant short-term pressure, with target points at $101,000-102,000.
Operational Suggestions:
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $105,000, with intense competition between bulls and bears, and no clear direction yet.
Bullish Strategy: It is recommended to patiently wait for the price to pull back to the $101,000–102,000 range or even lower, to the $93,000–98,000 support area, and observe stabilization signals before timing long positions, prioritizing confirmation of volume and candlestick structure.
Bearish Strategy: If shorting at the current price, the stop-loss should be set above the trend line breakout position. The target profit-loss ratio should not be less than 1:2. Alternatively, wait for the price to retrace to the descending trend line and face resistance before timing a short, with stop-loss set above the recent candlestick highs to prevent false breakouts.
It is not advisable to chase up and down in operations; currently, it is more prudent to focus on defense and wait for clear signals.
ETH: Wide fluctuations, pay attention to key points.
Ethereum (ETH) attempted to break through the $2660 resistance level last night but failed, quickly retreating after a brief spike, showing clear signs of a bullish trap. The current price is fluctuating within a wide range of $2480–2720, with no directional breakthrough yet. If the subsequent rebound fails to effectively stabilize above $2700, it may trigger a new round of decline, with a pullback target possibly reaching $2500 or even lower.
Operational thoughts can revolve around two key points:
Near the $2700 level above: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. If there are clear signs of stagnation or a significant spike followed by a drop, consider timing to open short positions.
Near the $2500 level below: If there is a bounce back and stabilization, it can be seen as a low-buy area for long positions. Combine with candlestick patterns and volume signals for timing.
The current market is mainly focused on range trading. It is recommended to patiently wait for confirmation of key position signals before acting.
Operational Suggestions:
Short-term traders should focus on the pressure level near $2700 for shorting opportunities or attempt to buy low in the $2500 support area. Operations must strictly set stop-loss defenses.
In the current volatile market, one should control positions, enter and exit quickly, avoid chasing highs and being greedy on lows, ensuring profits while mitigating risks from reverse fluctuations.
Recent Thoughts on Altcoins:
Once in profit, do not let it turn into a loss; be quick in and out. Focus primarily on short-term longs, such as $PROMPT.
Hotspots and Opportunities: Stablecoins and Altcoins
1. Stablecoin Narrative: Circle's IPO and the advancement of stablecoin legislation bring new opportunities to concepts like DeFi.
2. Coinbase frequently lists new tokens: Recently listed tokens like $LA, $ENA, and $CAKE have shown active performance, but $LA's brief spike after listing led to liquidations, with the platform promising compensation, highlighting the need to beware of similar high volatility risks.
Memecoin Dynamics:
In the memecoin sector of the Ethereum chain, the daily K of the little lizard $IGGY is extremely tempting, just like your crush dancing in front of you. The best part is that it's not expensive, only reaching 1 million now, which I like.
Memecoins on the Solana chain (such as labubu, king, ball) are generally retreating, lacking sustained narratives, and caution is needed in the short term.
The BSC chain is very active with the backing of Alpha. Tokens associated with wlfi show strong performance, and the wlif airdrop (worth $47 per address, symbolizing Trump as the 47th president) has attracted attention, making related tokens a short-term positioning opportunity.
