According to Polymarket data, the likelihood of XRP ETF approval is 98%, and analysts expect liquidity to increase and be more widely adopted.
The FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 may affect the price of XRP. The market speculates that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates by 25 basis points.
Over the past month, XRP, the native cryptocurrency of Ripple, has underperformed compared to other altcoin markets, currently trading at around $2.20. However, considering that the average return for XRP in June over the past 11 years has been 8.5%, this month's trend could significantly impact XRP investors. As a result, market optimism for Ripple is rising again, with analysts pointing out three developing trends that could drive its price up.
Spot XRP ETF approved
A major development in the Ripple ecosystem this June is the expectation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will rule on Franklin Templeton's proposed spot XRP ETF on June 17. If approved, this ETF would allow institutional and retail investors to invest directly in XRP through traditional financial platforms, eliminating the need for cryptocurrency wallets.
According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, as of June 3, the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has soared to 98%.
Currently, Polymarket estimates that by December 31, 2025, the likelihood of Ripple (XRP) being approved is 93%. Despite repeated delays from the securities regulator, this number has still significantly increased by 23% over the past month. Notable analyst Cekky Crypto predicts that this approval could have a transformative impact on XRP, similar to the launch of a Bitcoin ETF in early 2024. This launch will undoubtedly enhance the liquidity of the cryptocurrency Ripple.
The likelihood of interest rate cuts affecting prices
Currently, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17-18, as these macro indicators may play a key role in determining the direction of Ripple. The market speculates that the Federal Reserve may implement a moderate rate cut, likely around 25 basis points.
Once implemented, this could mark a significant turning point for months of dovish policy, potentially reigniting investor interest in risk-on markets, including altcoins like XRP. Historically, interest rate cuts have driven capital into tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. Analyst Cekky highlighted that Ripple could benefit from such an environment and pointed out that the digital asset market typically experiences significant rebounds following such events.
Increasing activity among XRP whales
The third bullish signal is the accumulation trend around the $1.90 mark. On-chain data shows that large holders of XRP, known as 'whales,' have been steadily accumulating, seemingly in anticipation of upcoming market catalysts. Additionally, companies like VivoPower have announced plans to begin building their XRP treasury.
Cryptocurrency analyst Cekky sees this as a key indicator and notes that despite ongoing risks, such as potential delays in ETF approvals or a tough stance from the Federal Reserve, 'the risk-reward is severely tilted towards the bulls.' He describes the current phase as 'the calm before the XRP storm' and is optimistic about a significant price breakout.
Historically, June has been a challenging month for XRP holders, but the convergence of these factors may signal a critical moment, laying the groundwork for a potential rebound.
