Bitcoin issues an important signal that may trigger a bullish market pullback
The price of Bitcoin currently hovers around $104,400, showing signs of market fatigue, and is at a critical turning point. Although the overall trend remains bullish, warning signals are starting to emerge in the current pullback phase. Among them, the potential formation of a small death cross on the four-hour chart is particularly concerning.
The so-called small death cross refers to a short-term moving average (typically the 20-day or 26-day EMA) crossing below a long-term moving average (such as the 50-day EMA) in a short time. This phenomenon often weakens momentum in a local uptrend, exacerbates bearish sentiment in the market, and triggers stop-losses, although its impact is not as severe as that of a daily-level death cross. If Bitcoin shows this signal in the coming days, the recent bullish momentum may be quickly weakened.
From the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently stabilizing around the 26-day moving average, approximately $104,500, which has long been considered an important short-term support. If the price breaks below this level, Bitcoin may further retreat to the next key support area—around $99,800, which is not only a psychological level but also a previous breakout point. If the downtrend continues, the lower 50-day moving average support (around $96,500) will become the focus. If Bitcoin can hold this level, it is necessary to be cautious to avoid a price pullback to the convergence area of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $80,000.
Meanwhile, there has been a significant shrinkage in trading volume, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 50, hovering on the edge of the neutral bearish zone, suggesting that the market may be entering a distribution phase rather than a healthy consolidation period.
Investors should focus on the support level of $104,000; once the daily close falls below this point, the risk of a market crash in the short term will significantly increase. The price may quickly rebound to the range of $107,000 to $108,000, but if the bulls cannot quickly counterattack, this 'mini death cross' signal could become a self-fulfilling prophecy for the market.
Shiba Inu is being pushed
Despite Shiba Inu's recent low mood, the token may be issuing a faint but potentially strong bullish signal. SHIB's current trading price is $0.00001282, slightly above the annual low area, and this key support level has traditionally served as a springboard for a quick reversal. From the daily chart, it can be seen that SHIB has fallen back to the lower edge of the accumulation area it occupied earlier this year.
The historical range of $0.0000125 to $0.0000130 has previously triggered rebounds at the end of the month and in April. Although these attempts failed to break through the 200-day moving average, they indicate that buyers are actively protecting the lower boundary of this range. The current RSI is at 39, slightly above the oversold level, suggesting that the token may be approaching a critical point for a rebound.
Although trading volume is not large, it remains stable, indicating that selling pressure is not yet sufficient to trigger a significant decline in SHIB. Although SHIB has failed to break through the 50-day and 100-day moving averages in the recent rebound, it has still successfully avoided a complete crash, indicating that some traders are still optimistic about its consolidation trend rather than heading towards a crash.
If the bulls can hold the current level in the coming trading days and successfully break through the resistance level of $0.0000135, the possibility of a reversal will significantly increase. If they can further challenge and break through the resistance area of $0.0000157 while rebounding from the annual low support, this will be the most positive signal. At that point, the current bearish pattern will be broken, potentially triggering a broader bullish trend.
Dogecoin has become sluggish
As Dogecoin attempts to rebound from a recent local high, its price trend and trading volume have entered a noticeably sluggish period. As of now, Dogecoin's trading price is about $0.19, seemingly neither breaking higher levels nor experiencing a cliff-like drop. The consolidation over the past few days is the most evident sign of Dogecoin's 'slumber'.
Although the price currently hovers within the support area of $0.18 to $0.19, slightly flattening above the 100-day moving average (blue), there are no signs of a significant reversal or continuation of the previous trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 39, indicating that market sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish.
On the other hand, the decline in trading volume reflects a weakening market participation, which usually means both bulls and bears are in a wait-and-see or hesitant state. The 50-day moving average (orange line) acts as a key technical resistance level, currently slightly above the current price, and is worth close attention. To activate bullish momentum and awaken the sleeping Dogecoin, the price must strongly break through this threshold, preferably with significant volume expansion.
At this stage, the most likely trend for Dogecoin is sideways consolidation, or even a slight decline. Due to the lack of clear direction and volatility, the market is in a wait-and-see or accumulation state, which can lead to sudden sharp fluctuations and easily trap investors in blind optimism or complacency.
