Yesterday's small non-farm data was released, and I believe everyone is already aware. The market originally expected this data to reach 130,000; however, the actual data published was only over 30,000, far below expectations. This huge discrepancy could very likely indicate that the non-farm data to be released this Friday may also not be optimistic and could further exacerbate the market's downward trend.
However, from another perspective, the bad news from the data aspect might be an excellent opportunity for us. If the non-farm data triggers a rapid market decline, then for those who missed the opportunity to buy at the bottom last time, this drop is undoubtedly a good time to buy spot.
The current market situation is clear. Since June, the Bitcoin market has been performing sluggishly, with a severe lack of upward momentum. Looking back from April 7 to the end of May, Bitcoin experienced more than a month of continuous upward movement without effective adjustments; thus, a correction now is inevitable. I had previously reminded everyone that once Bitcoin reached a new high, short-selling operations could be considered.
Next, I will analyze the entire market's trading ideas in detail.
BTC: Short-Selling Strategy in the Correction Market
Recently, Bitcoin has been in a continuous correction state, but the extent of the correction is relatively mild. The current market trend is quite similar to the structure of the previous bull market; after forming a double top pattern, it has entered a long period of oscillating downward trend. As for the current market, it is recommended to continue adopting a short-selling strategy at wave high points and maintain a bearish view throughout this month. Specifically, you can place short positions in the range of 106500 - 107000, with an initial target below at 102000. Of course, if there are other hot narratives driving the market upwards, the operational strategy will need to be reconsidered. While long positions can also be considered, they are not highly recommended.
ETH and Altcoins: Operational Suggestions Under Different Trends
Since the Ethereum upgrade, the upward trend has been quite impressive. Especially under the recent continuous sluggishness of Bitcoin, Ethereum often experiences a short-term surge, but then quickly retreats. Whether Ethereum can establish an independent trend still depends on whether the 'E Guardians' can exert more effort.
In terms of operating on Ethereum, my view is consistent with that on Bitcoin, mainly focusing on short positions. Currently, ETH's oscillation level has expanded, within a wide oscillation range of 2480 - 2720. If the next upward movement fails to break through the resistance level, the correction will be deeper, at least down to 2450. The area around 2700 is a more ideal short-selling point; as for going long, it can be attempted at 2560 for intraday trading.
Regarding altcoins, recent explosive incidents have occurred frequently. Given the current market situation, it is not recommended to invest in altcoins.
Overall Layout and Market Outlook
Overall, the current layout should still primarily focus on short positions. The non-farm payroll data released this Friday will become a new market focal point, and it is expected that many articles speculating on interest rate cuts will emerge soon. Considering the poor performance of small non-farm data, a rate cut is not impossible. If a rate cut does occur, our operational thinking will need to make corresponding adjustments.
For altcoins, suitable positions can be sought for buying spot after Bitcoin's correction leads to their decline. The small circle will timely provide relevant notifications.
In summary, investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and flexibly adjust their operational strategies based on data changes and market trends to cope with market uncertainties.
