When will I sell the long-term position in BTC that I have accumulated over the past three years?
I am someone who cares a lot about 'cycles',
adhering to the idea of buying at the bear bottom and selling at the bull tail.
This cycle has less than half a year left, so it's time to look for opportunities to sell a portion.
I expect this year's bull tail to last until Q4, which means there will be a big bull run around October to December.
For my long-term position, my strategy going forward is:
1. If Bitcoin continues to rise in the next month or two,
then I will sell 30% of my long-term position accumulated over the past two years in batches at 115,000 and 120,000.
2. If Bitcoin crashes as expected in the next month or two,
then I will also open a 'crypto-based contract grid' again at the bottom,
and only allocate a portion of my position, keeping the majority in spot.
This way, if I encounter a black swan event that causes a further crash,
the spot can be put into the crypto-based grid, minimizing liquidation risk.
If I still see potential for a bull run,
I can increase my crypto holdings over time.
Seizing every dip allows me to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Moreover, even if starting with a small position, the range must be set very conservatively,
so that I can hold the grid position from a safe level.
I opened the grid at 76,000 and closed it around 94,000 in early May.
Although I didn't catch the entire move to 110,000,
the spot I held after closing still gained significantly.