When will I sell the long-term position in BTC that I have accumulated over the past three years?

I am someone who cares a lot about 'cycles',

adhering to the idea of buying at the bear bottom and selling at the bull tail.

This cycle has less than half a year left, so it's time to look for opportunities to sell a portion.

I expect this year's bull tail to last until Q4, which means there will be a big bull run around October to December.

For my long-term position, my strategy going forward is:

1. If Bitcoin continues to rise in the next month or two,

then I will sell 30% of my long-term position accumulated over the past two years in batches at 115,000 and 120,000.

2. If Bitcoin crashes as expected in the next month or two,

then I will also open a 'crypto-based contract grid' again at the bottom,

and only allocate a portion of my position, keeping the majority in spot.

This way, if I encounter a black swan event that causes a further crash,

the spot can be put into the crypto-based grid, minimizing liquidation risk.

If I still see potential for a bull run,

I can increase my crypto holdings over time.

Seizing every dip allows me to accumulate more Bitcoin.

Moreover, even if starting with a small position, the range must be set very conservatively,

so that I can hold the grid position from a safe level.

I opened the grid at 76,000 and closed it around 94,000 in early May.

Although I didn't catch the entire move to 110,000,

the spot I held after closing still gained significantly.