💠 Financing Timing and Motivation
How should I put it? If we apply the logic of stocks, the essence of issuing tokens should be for financing. According to this logic, the project process should be:
Product → Financing → Mature Product → TGE → Airdrop → Product Ecosystem
Or
Product → Financing → TGE → Airdrop → Mature Product → Product Ecosystem
The key here is that financing should occur before the product matures and the ecosystem stabilizes. The essence of token financing should be to push the product and ecosystem towards maturity. The goal of financing is to provide cost assurance for improving the product and developing the ecosystem.
However, in the case of #PumpFun, the product and ecosystem may already be relatively mature. Of course, the PumpFun product has room for improvement, but in fact, there are already @virtuals_io and @believeapp in the market, limiting PumpFun's potential for greater innovation.
#PUMP financing and issuing tokens at this time may raise suspicions of token issuance to exploit investors.
💠 Financing Valuation and Revenue Trends
$PUMP's financing is valued at 4b (4 billion dollars).
@xingpt has compiled some DEX and DeFi protocol FDV/annual revenue statistics. (I added a watermark for him).
The comparison shows that PUMPFUN might be somewhat overvalued. Some friends say that PUMPFUN's annual income is not limited to this. But in fact, the MEME ecosystem of Solana is showing some decline.
According to the cross-chain data from Solana's cross-chain bridge DeBridge, in January 2025, funds in Solana were net inflows, but from February to now, the Solana ecosystem has clearly seen net outflows.
@0xcrypto_max just mentioned, "the awkward situation where Solana's meme can no longer be listed on various exchanges like bybit, etc."
It can be seen that PUMP's revenue may likely decline next, so the $40 billion valuation of PUMP might be somewhat overvalued.
@monkeyjiang directly anticipated the script after $PUMP issues tokens: "Just launched, pump for a wave, trap a bunch of investors. Then a gradual decline, and finally a sideways trend."
Brother Bee also calculated the FDV/annual revenue of #Debridge ($DBR), which also belongs to the Solana ecosystem.
$DBR has an FDV of 139.25M, with annual revenue of 10.14M, yielding a ratio of 13.73, which is relatively low compared to the previous table, indicating that $DBR might be somewhat undervalued.
💠 Airdrop Expectations
While PUMP is financing at a high valuation, it completely avoids mentioning airdrops. @sleepy0x13 believes, "Don't fantasize that Pump Fun will issue an airdrop anymore."
Airdrops are not only fulfilling past promises but also a way to give back to users. The relationship between users and the platform has always been symbiotic.
Not all projects lack vision; I still want to use Debridge ($DBR) as an example.
$DBR airdropped 600 million tokens last year, with an initial listing price of 0.03713, a low of 0.01864. Let's be conservative and calculate at 0.025, with a total claim of 437 million tokens, worth $10.925 million.
In April-May this year, the second round airdropped 23,200,200 $DBR tokens, with this round priced between 0.01904 and 0.01388; conservatively calculating at 0.015, the second round airdrop is worth $0.348 million.
The total value of the two rounds of airdrops is $11.273 million, which has already exceeded Debridge's annual revenue.
So after the second round of airdrop ends on May 17, $DBR continues to decline under the pressure from the airdrop, but there isn't much negative feedback. On the contrary, Brother Bee feels that @deBridgeFinance is a project with a grand vision.
Looking at PUMP, it's acknowledged as an innovation, but it has indeed caused many people to incur significant losses. Although airdrops cannot compensate users for their trading losses, they might soothe users' emotions.
💠 Final Thoughts
It is indeed rare to see projects start financing and issuing tokens during a mature or even declining phase, which raises questions about their motives. Moreover, the financing valuation is still so high, and there seems to be little emphasis on user airdrops...