The previous article (Qingmei Zhuobi: Discussing more reliable buying points for Bitcoin and ETH) speculated on the position of the pullback and provided valuable buying points. This article explains the risk of Bitcoin's decline from other indicators.
1. The proportion of whales on the exchange is rising.
Looking at the data: The proportion of whales on the exchange has surged, with a 30-day moving average of 0.47, which means that almost half of the BTC deposits are from 'whale' traders. Historically, when this ratio exceeds 0.5, retail participation decreases, and the influence of whales rises, which may push the market into a sell-off phase, thereby increasing the risk of a pullback.
2. The long positions on the big B exchange have been nearly exhausted.
The big B exchange is the well-established exchange Bitfinex, and its long position often has a negative correlation with the market.
As shown in the figure, the upper red curve is the price chart of btcusd, and the lower candlestick chart shows the long position situation on the big B exchange.
When the long positions on the big B exchange drop to a relatively low level, Bitcoin's price may peak or even reach a peak. When the long positions on the big B exchange rise to a relatively high level, Bitcoin's price may bottom out or be close to the bottom.
The long positions on the big B exchange began to build in late December 2024 and were completed in early April 2025. Bitcoin bottomed out on April 7, 2025, after a pullback. As the market rose, the long positions on the big B exchange started to reduce, increasing and decreasing together, and now almost all of the previously built positions have been liquidated, indicating that Bitcoin's price may have peaked, increasing the risk of a pullback.
3. USDT.D has broken through the downward channel.
USDT.D (the market cap share of USDT) is negatively correlated with BTC; when USDT.D falls, BTC rises, and when USDT.D rises, BTC falls.
As shown in the figure, the daily chart of USDT.D has broken through the downward channel, which at least indicates a significant change in the trend of Bitcoin, increasing the risk of a pullback. #BTC走势分析
