June 4, 2025 Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Bitcoin High-Level Consolidation, Ethereum Bullish Dominance

On June 4, 2025, the cryptocurrency market exhibited a differentiation pattern. Bitcoin (BTC) continued its high-level consolidation, with intraday volatility narrowing to the $103,000-$108,000 range, the latest price being $105,200. The daily chart shows that BTC repeatedly tests the support at the 30-day moving average ($103,000), with the MACD histogram continuously contracting, forming a dead cross between the DIF and DEA lines, and the RSI indicator retreating to the neutral level of 51, indicating weakened short-term momentum. The market is awaiting the non-farm payroll data on Friday. If the employment data is stronger than expected, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations and exacerbate BTC selling pressure; conversely, it may trigger a rebound in risk assets.

Ethereum (ETH) performed relatively strongly, reaching a daily high of $2,649 and quickly recovering after a low of $2,563. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD histogram for ETH continues to expand, indicating bullish strength, but the KDJ indicator is showing signs of overbought conditions, warranting caution against short-term pullback risks. The upper Bollinger Band at $2,680 constitutes a key resistance level; if broken, it could open up upward space to $2,730. Notably, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through the key level of 0.08, with technical patterns suggesting a potential historic surge in Q4 2025, but caution is required regarding the impact of token unlocks (more than $3.3 billion in tokens will be unlocked in June) on short-term liquidity.

On the fundamental side, the June token unlock wave and the Federal Reserve's policy game have become core variables. Ahead of the non-farm data, market sentiment has become cautious, with both BTC and ETH exhibiting characteristics of reduced trading volume. In terms of trading strategy, BTC should closely monitor the defensive level at $103,000; if it breaks below this, it may trigger technical selling. ETH should focus on the effectiveness of the support at $2,550; if it stabilizes, a light long position may be considered, targeting the resistance area at $2,680.