Market Analysis Sharing Today
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
As of June 5, the price of Bitcoin is reported at $104,718, down 0.48% for the day, with a technical outlook showing a bearish dominant pattern. The 4-hour chart indicates a three-phase structure of 'decline - rebound - further decline,' breaking below the key support level of MA60 ($103,800), with short-term support shifting down to $103,498 (psychological round number) and $102,955 (200-day moving average). In terms of technical indicators, the MACD histogram remains negative with expanding negative values, and the DIF line and DEA line have crossed and diverged downward, indicating an acceleration of bearish momentum; although the KDJ indicator is in a neutral range, it is diverging downward after a 'high position dead cross,' suggesting insufficient rebound momentum. From a fundamental perspective, over $3.3 billion in tokens will be unlocked in June, potentially increasing selling pressure, while the U.S. non-farm payroll data (June 6) will directly affect Federal Reserve policy expectations: if the data is strong, it may reinforce tightening expectations, which is bearish for Bitcoin; if the data is weak, it might trigger easing expectations, pushing prices up. In terms of operations, it is recommended to trade within the range of $103,498 - $106,416 with short selling at high points and buying at low points, and strictly set a 3% stop-loss; for the long term, if the price pulls back to below $100,000, consider building positions in batches.
Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis
A divergence at the top is emerging, with the ecological narrative supporting Ethereum's current price of $2,626, up 0.73% for the day, but the technical outlook shows a 'stagnation' characteristic. The 4-hour chart indicates a 'top divergence' in the MACD indicator (price reaches a new high but the indicator does not), with volume bars continuously shrinking, signaling a short-term pullback risk; the Bollinger Bands have been extremely compressed for nearly a month, with volatility dropping to historical lows, indicating an impending change in trend. In terms of the moving average system, EMA15 ($2,608) provides short-term support, but the price has repeatedly tested the resistance at $2,630 without success; if it breaks below EMA30 ($2,580), it may trigger technical stop-loss orders. From a fundamental perspective, the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem continues to advance (such as Layer2 expansion, DeFi protocol optimization), with a net inflow of $70.2 million in spot ETFs in May showing institutional capital preference, but over $500 million in ecological project tokens will be unlocked in June, which may create short-term selling pressure. In terms of operations, it is recommended to engage in swing trading within the range of $2,450 - $2,686, with a strict 3% stop-loss; for the long term, we are optimistic about the advantages of the Ethereum ecosystem and suggest accumulating positions on dips.
