QCP Capital has observed a continued drop in short-term Bitcoin (BTC) volatility, with the asset hovering in a tight range near $105,000. The firm reports that 1-month implied volatility has now fallen below 40%, reflecting lower market expectations for major price moves in the near term.
The quiet market action mirrors broader investor caution. The S&P 500 approached the 6,000-point mark after an unexpected uptick in U.S. job openings, boosting risk sentiment ahead of Friday’s key non-farm payrolls report. According to QCP, solid employment figures would likely affirm the Federal Reserve’s view that the labor market remains strong—reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay unchanged.
In derivatives markets, skew has leveled out and positions remain light, signaling limited directional conviction. Since May, volatility has flattened across the curve, prompting some traders to initiate long volatility strategies. Notably, a $130,000 BTC call option expiring in September was recently priced with 47% implied volatility, hinting at select interest in upside potential heading into Q3.
Beyond the U.S., trading volumes in Chinese 10- and 30-year bond futures have dropped to their lowest levels since February—another sign of global risk aversion. Investors are also awaiting the upcoming Xi-Trump meeting, which could provide key geopolitical cues.
QCP concludes that without a decisive macroeconomic or geopolitical catalyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to break out of its current range anytime soon.
