BTC 2025 Bullish Logic: Liquidity Resonance and Structural Breakthrough
The bullish logic for BTC in 2025 has shifted from a purely speculative narrative to being driven by multiple fundamentals. The global M2 money supply continues to expand (surpassing $110 trillion in 2025), combined with the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, excess liquidity is accelerating its migration to scarce assets. As a deflationary asset (annual inflation rate of 0.78%, lower than gold), BTC's 'digital gold' property is becoming increasingly prominent under the pressure of fiat currency devaluation.
Institutionalization is the core driving force: Asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have been continuously increasing their holdings through spot ETFs, with net inflows into BTC ETFs reaching $4.4 billion in just April to May 2025, pushing 5% of the total network circulation into institutional accounts. BlackRock's IBIT holdings surged from 2.6 million shares to 5.85 million shares, with a holding size exceeding $5.4 billion, directly reshaping market pricing power. On-chain data shows that long-term holders (LTH) have shifted from selling to accumulation, with exchange reserves dropping to a five-year low, reflecting a fundamental improvement in market supply-demand dynamics.
Technical Breakthrough Reinforces Trend: BTC recently broke through the key resistance level of $95,000, stabilizing above the short-term holder cost price (STH Realized Price), forming a 'volume-price rise' situation. The RSI indicator is in the healthy range of 60-70, and the MACD golden cross is releasing mid-term bullish signals. The 20-day moving average and the 365-day moving average are forming a 'golden cross', and the technical structure presents typical bull market characteristics.
Halving Cycle Catalyzes Long-term Value: After the halving in 2024, the annual issuance of BTC will drop to 164,000 coins, with the supply-demand imbalance effect becoming concentrated in 2025-2026. Historical data shows that the 12-18 months following a halving often represent a main upward wave phase, and with the current global debt crisis (government debt/GDP exceeding 350%), the demand for BTC as a 'digital safe-haven asset' will continue to rise.
Risks and Opportunities Coexist: Although there is a need to be cautious of the $35 billion in open contracts in the derivatives market causing fluctuations in the short term, the inflow of funds into spot ETFs and the 'policy bottom' effect of institutional holdings have formed support. As BTC ETFs are included in the S&P 500 index and sovereign countries increase their foreign exchange reserve allocations, its role as a global liquidity 'digital valve' is becoming increasingly clear. #BTC
