JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has made comments about U.S. Treasury bonds that have garnered attention. Bessent stated, 'The U.S. will never default; it will never happen. We are in a warning zone, but we will never hit a wall.' This is essentially a correct yet meaningless statement. Despite market fears, no one has ever claimed that U.S. Treasury bonds would default. A crisis in U.S. Treasury bonds is not the same as a default. As long as the U.S. does not want to default, it will never happen, because the government can always print money to buy them.

In fact, U.S. Treasury bonds are a performance by both parties and the Federal Reserve, reluctantly maintaining the remaining credibility. If the debt ceiling were truly lifted and bonds were issued freely, there would certainly be a steep decline in the short term. The zero-interest U.S. Treasury bonds issued by Mar-a-Lago can be seen as an exploratory balloon for this line of thought.

The recent stablecoin legislation is also somewhat aimed at introducing new buyers to alleviate the U.S. Treasury bond crisis. However, this means that the original model where the Federal Reserve buys Treasury bonds to issue dollars will gradually be replaced by numerous institutions buying Treasury bonds to issue stablecoins, thus reducing the minting power.

As the dollar enters a weak cycle, while benefiting Trump's revitalization of industry, dollar depreciation is also inevitable. Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar index will decline by about 9% over the next year, falling to around 91.

Huatai Research indicates that according to various measurement methods, the dollar is 'overvalued' by 15-20%. If Trump eliminates the trade deficit through exchange rate adjustments, the dollar needs to depreciate by more than 15%.

Students who need RMB can start exchanging some USD for living expense reserves. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the dollar will only weaken further, so don't wait until it breaks 7 to think about exchanging money.