Bitcoin Midday View
Support and Resistance Levels
- Key Support Level: $105,083.6 - $104,880 forms a double bottom structure. If this range is broken, it may drop to $104,000.
- Key Resistance Level: $105,777.2 - $106,800. If it breaks above $106,800, it may open up an upward space to the $108,000 - $110,000 range.
Market Analysis
Scenario 1: Breakthrough Resistance, Continue Uptrend
- Conditions:
- Price effectively breaks above $105,777.2 with increased trading volume.
- U.S. ISM data does not significantly boost the dollar, and market risk appetite rises.
- Target:
Short-term target of $106,800, and if broken, may reach $108,000 - $110,000.
- Risk Warning:
If the volume does not continue to increase after the breakout, it may form a “false breakout,” and caution is needed for a pullback to below $105,500.
Scenario 2: Encounter Resistance, Test Support
- Conditions:
- Price encounters resistance near $105,777.2, with shrinking volume.
- U.S. ISM data exceeds expectations, boosting the dollar, or the SEC releases negative signals.
- Target:
Short-term pullback to $105,083.6 support, if broken, may drop to $104,000.
- Risk Warning:
If the support at $105,083.6 is broken and there is no significant buying interest, it may trigger panic selling and accelerate the decline.
Scenario 3: Consolidation, Waiting for Direction
- Conditions:
- Price fluctuates narrowly in the $105,083.6 - $105,777.2 range.
- The market is highly cautious, waiting for Federal Reserve policy or economic data guidance.
- Operation Suggestion:
Sell high and buy low, lightly test long positions near support levels, take profit near resistance levels.
Operation Strategy Suggestions
1. Conservatives:
- Long: If the price breaks above $105,777.2 with increased volume, a light long position can be taken, with a stop loss set at $105,500 and a target of $106,800.
- Short: If the price breaks below $105,083.6 with increased volume, a light short position can be taken, with a stop loss set at $105,300 and a target of $104,000.
2. Aggressives:
- Below $105,000 is a range for gradual position building, with a long-term target of $110,000.
- If it breaks below $104,000, the market trend needs to be reassessed, and systemic risks should be monitored.
