Seeing https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt planning to issue tokens at a $4 billion valuation to raise $1 billion evokes mixed feelings. It's hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform is valued higher than most DeFi blue-chip protocols. Is such an exorbitant valuation reasonable? Here are a few points of view:
1) The inflated, bubble-like market valuation is quite unreasonable.
From the data, it's clear that https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt is indeed the largest beneficiary of this MEME super cycle, with monthly revenue peaks reaching tens of millions of dollars, a wealth creation effect that is phenomenal even in traditional internet terms.
However, the attention economy business of https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt relies on the short-term, irrational product of market MEME coin FOMO. In simple terms, it relies on "gambling" driven traffic monetization. This means that the monetization ability of https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt's business model is entirely a product of the short-term spotlight effect of the market, rather than a sustainable, normalized profit logic.
Based on this, is the $4 billion valuation reasonable? This pricing far exceeds that of most DeFi blue-chip protocols, making it hard to imagine how a platform that has been mocked for harvesting retail investors would have a valuation crushing that of innovative blue-chip protocols. Once the MEME craze fades or the market returns to rationality, the revenue model of https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt could collapse instantly. So, what exactly does https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt offer the market by issuing tokens at this moment of MEME cooling?
2) A fragile business moat is easily surpassed.
The success of https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt seems accidental but is actually inevitable; it seized the technical dividend of Solana's high performance and low cost, as well as the era dividend of MEME culture moving from niche to mainstream.
But how deep is this "first-mover advantage" moat? Technically, similar token issuance platforms can be quickly replicated; operationally, the MEME launch platform is essentially a traffic business, and once the hot spots shift or regulations tighten, the cost for users to migrate is extremely low.
More critically, https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt is highly dependent on the Solana ecosystem. Once there are significant changes in the Solana ecosystem, the fragility of its business model will be fully exposed. This business model, built on others' infrastructure, is essentially a "dependent" business, and given its extreme unsustainability, how can it support a $4 billion independent valuation?
3) The tool-like property of Launchpad is hard to form an ecosystem.
Currently, even if https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt is "making money," it is just a "token issuance tool," and to support a $4 billion market valuation, at least a large MEME economic ecosystem is needed. Knowing that it is unattainable, it is hard to imagine what the purpose of raising $1 billion is.
Unbeknownst to many, transforming from a pure Launchpad into a complex MEME economic ecosystem inherently contains a paradox: the core of MEME culture is precisely simplicity, directness, and viral spread; excessive functional overlap will only cause the platform to lose its original "wildness."
In fact, balancing the "short and quick" characteristics of MEMEs with the platform's long-term value accumulation is challenging. Products that attempt to evolve from tools to platforms often lose themselves in the pursuit of being "big and complete," ultimately becoming something unrecognizable. With $1 billion in hand, https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt may be heading toward such a fate.
4) Extremely high valuations will disrupt the original value innovation system.
The extremely high valuation of https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt sends a dangerous signal to the entire industry: in the current Crypto ecosystem, the value of "traffic aggregation + speculative monetization" may exceed that of "technological innovation + infrastructure." One must ask, when creating gambling platforms is more profitable than promoting technological innovation, who will still chew on the tough bone of infrastructure? It is hard to imagine what kind of disastrous industry chain reaction this new value orientation will produce.
On one hand, more capital and talent will flood into MEME-related infrastructure construction; on the other hand, it may also exacerbate the industry's "entertainment" trend, marginalizing true technological innovation.
In summary, the token issuance by https://t.co/sqAa0uamkt is both a sign of the maturation of the MEME economy and possibly a signal of the collapse of industry values.
The key is whether it can truly build a sustainable business moat after obtaining massive capital, otherwise, this distorted valuation will bring tremendous innovative disasters to the entire industry, heralding a more utilitarian, shortsighted, and further distancing from the technical geek essence of the Crypto future.
