✅ Short when the price meets the red cloud + Stoch RSI overbought
• Entry: 0.828–0.85 (top of the red cloud combined with EMA cluster).
• Entry conditions: There is a clear bearish reversal candle (pin bar, engulfing) + Stoch RSI crossing down from the overbought zone.
• Stop-loss: Above 0.865.
• Take-profit:
• TP1: 0.786 (nearest technical support).
• TP2: 0.750 (bottom of sideways).
⚠️ Alternative scenario: Long if breaking the red cloud
• Only consider LONG when the price closes a H4 candle above 0.85, clearly confirming the breakout.
• Target TP: 0.90–0.92.
• Stop-loss: 0.818.
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📊 Detailed technical analysis – Why could this be a 'bull trap'?
☁️ Ichimoku Cloud
• Price touched the top of the red cloud and is being rejected → strong resistance zone.
• Tenkan crosses up Kijun, but the price is still in the cloud → weak bullish signal.
• Chikou Span is still within the candle zone → has not confirmed a clear bullish trend.
🧱 EMA
• EMA 34 and EMA 89 are close to the current price level → creating a strong resistance layer above.
• The price line is squeezed between the cloud and the EMA cluster → difficult to strongly bounce back without significant capital inflow.
⚠️ Stochastic RSI
• Stoch RSI is in the extremely overbought zone (above 95), the two lines are starting to curve down → sign of a short-term correction.
• If you cut down from here, it will confirm a clear short-term reversal.
🔍 MACD
• MACD line just crossed the signal line from below → weak bullish signal.
• Green histogram but close to the 0 axis → bullish momentum is still weak, easily 'turning back'.
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🧠 In summary:
• FET is recovering in a sideways to bearish trend, blocked by the red Ichimoku cloud and layered EMA.
• Technical indicators (Stoch RSI and MACD) give weak bullish signals and are overbought.
• SHORT strategy when the price touches 0.83–0.85 is reasonable, good risk/reward ratio.
• Should not FOMO Long at this time without confirmation of breaking resistance.
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