The journey of Solana is like a roller coaster; each squat might harness energy for the next leap.
At this moment, SOL is fluctuating around $159, nearly halving from its historical peak of $295 at the beginning of the year. Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to caution, but on-chain data and ecological dynamics hold hidden secrets.
Recent Negative News: The shadow of FTX unlocking has not yet dissipated.
In early March, the bankrupt FTX unlocked 3.03 million SOL (approximately $431 million), causing a panic sell-off, with SOL plummeting 19% within 24 hours, briefly falling below $140. Although some institutions have realized profits from low-priced tokens, residual selling pressure continues to suppress market psychology, especially given the overall liquidity weakness in the crypto market.
Crisis of Confidence: Capital Outflow and Trust Challenges
In February 2025, the Solana ecosystem faced a capital outflow of $485 million, as users turned to Ethereum and other 'more stable chains,' with meme coin scams (such as the Argentine president-backed project Libra, which defrauded $107 million) further undermining trust, leading on-chain TVL to shrink to $6 billion and active staking demand to cool.
Key Support: Technical battleground for bulls and bears.
Support Level: If it holds the range of $125-135, it may build a bottom and rebound.
Resistance Level: A breakthrough above $170 could confirm a short-term reversal signal, targeting the $200 mark.
The current RSI indicator is approaching the oversold zone, with some whales beginning to accumulate at low levels (e.g., a certain address bottoming out with 1 billion DOGE-like strategies), possibly setting the stage for a rebound.
Long-term Dawn: Dual Catalysts of Ecology and Policy
Technical Upgrade: If the SIMD-0228 proposal passes, SOL's inflation rate may drop below 1%, enhancing scarcity.
Institutional Layout: Circle recently issued an additional 250 million USDC on Solana, and Franklin Templeton is exploring tokenization of on-chain funds; institutional confidence remains.
Policy Dividend: If Trump pushes for SOL to be included in the U.S. crypto strategic reserve, it could ignite a new round of increases (even though the White House summit failed to deliver short-term benefits).
The story of Solana is far from over—those who stand firm in the storm are often the first to see the rainbow.
Focus on ecological technology implementation and institutional trends; below $160 may be a good accumulation opportunity.
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