The Hundredfold Violence Rule: A Contract Survival Manual from a Professional Trader

I. The Mathematical Death Sentence of Compound Interest Illusions

1. Comparison of Realistic Profit Models

10% monthly compound interest: 100U → 3091U after 36 months

Three 10x opportunities: 100U → 100,000U

2. Exchange Liquidation Archives

Binance contract data for 2024 shows:

Users using leverage greater than 5x have an average survival period of 17 days

Accounts trading more than 3 times a day have a 92% probability of losing money

II. Periodic Hunting Tactics

1. The Evolution of Volatility

BTC Price Daily Average Fluctuation Corresponding Leverage Safety Value

3,000 ±80 points ≤50x

10,000 ±200 points ≤20x

58,000 ±2500 points ≤3x

2. Three-Period Positioning Method

mermaid

graph TD

A[Large Cycle: Bull-Bear Transition] --> B[Medium Cycle: 3-6 Month Swing]

B --> C[Small Cycle: 7-15 Day Oscillation]

C --> D[Micro Cycle: 4 Hour Structure]

3. ETH Practical Case

The basis for judging 2947 as the small cycle iron bottom:

On-chain whale cost line

Maximum pain point for quarterly options

Weekly EMA21 support

Supplement Strategy:

Add 5% to the position for every 2% drop

Total position does not exceed 30%

Set the liquidation price at -15% position

III. Quantum Mechanics of Risk Control

1. Position Equation

Maximum openable amount = Account equity × 0.02 / |Opening price - Stop loss price|

Example: 100,000 account, 300 points stop loss → can open 6.66BTC

2. Liquidation Thermometer

Funding rate > 0.1% → Reduce leverage by 50%

Exchange reserves increase sharply → Close positions and wait

Unsettled contracts hit a new high → Hedge opening orders

IV. The Core Algorithm of the "Forever Profit" System

1. Annual-Level Opportunity Capture

Only participate in

Monthly MACD golden cross currency

Exchange net outflow > 5%

Projects with surging development activity

2. Dumb Money Strategy Execution Checklist

Establish positions in November each year (72% probability of historical low)

Only buy the top 5 mainstream currencies by market capitalization

Use 1-2x leverage

Stop loss when it falls below the annual line

V. Ultimate Survival Creed

1. Be Friends with Volatility

When the market's daily average fluctuation is > 5%, leverage must be < 2x

Clear contract positions when the Volatility Index (BVOL) breaks through 120

2. Anti-Fragile Position Structure

70% Spot + 20% Low Leverage + 10% Cash

No single loss exceeds 1% of total assets

3. God-Making Movement Immunity

All "10,000x in one year" stories hide

Source of initial principal

Losses of other accounts during the same period

Teamwork advantages

Follow Wenge!

Remember: In this market, living long is the most advanced way to show off #我的COS交易 #BNB