$BTC Made its highest monthly candle close in history. The | DaanCrypto on Binance Square

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$BTC Made its highest monthly candle close in history.
The trend undoubtedly is still up, but there has been no strong continuation above $100K+ this year just yet.

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The Bitcoin Cycles 📚 Every cycle we see the same thing: "This cycle will be longer/shorter because...". So far, every cycle $BTC has seen has been nearly identical in duration and generally lasts ~4 years from top to top (or bottom to bottom). The biggest argument for this has always been the halving which occurs every 4 years. Whatever it is that has made this happen to this point or what might break it in the future, I still don't like speculating on this trend ending until it actually has ended. It has been the only consistent pattern/trend in crypto's existence. The fact that there seems to be a consensus that this time is once again different, only makes me want to stick with it more. Yes, there's dozens of reasons why this can break and yes, BTC is bigger, more mature, reacts more to macro events, we have ETFs etc. But personally I do think it's good to have a rough guideline in your head when investing and going through these cycles, instead of basing your entire cycle expectation on whether last week's candlestick was green or red. We've already seen many people call for a top earlier this year which were proven wrong. Now I see people calling for the cycle to last until late 2026 or beyond, which I think is stretching it too far. Obviously I'll be nimble to adapt if this does change. But until proven otherwise, the 4 year cycle is still a good guideline for me and the closer we get to the 4 year's ending by end of 2025, the more I'll be scaling out. Just as I did last cycle in 2021. This tweet says nothing about my current expectation in the short term. I think Summer is somewhat uncertain and I don't have a strong opinion on that. This post is mostly referring to late 2025 and cycles in general.

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$BTC There's a big difference between the green and red areas I've marked on this chart. The green area saw a +42% increase in price with 30K BTC in Aggregated Open Interest added. The red area saw just a +8% increase in price with 45K BTC in Aggregated Open Interest added. So that's 50% more OI added in a move that was less than 1/5th the size. A lot of leverage added into that all time high sweep and I think there's still quite a chunk of that left, which is now trapped at $108K-$110K and is yet to unwind I think. Open interest going up with price is normal, but it's important that it stays balanced. Where the move in the green area was very clean & healthy, the last push up was paired with a lot of longs chasing and is also one of the main reasons why price stalled out. A quick flush in open interest back to the white dotted line would make for a nice reset in that regard and would make me more bullish again in the short/mid term.

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$BTC There's two big differences between the green and red areas I've marked. The green area saw a +42% increase in price with 30K BTC in Aggregated Open Interest added. The red area saw just a +8% increase in price with 45K BTC in Aggregated Open Interest added. So that's 50% more OI added in a move that was less than 1/5th the size. A lot of leverage added into that all time high sweep and I think there's still quite a chunk of that which is now trapped at $108K-$110K and is yet to unwind. Open interest going up with price is normal, but it's important that it stays balanced. Where the move in the green area was very clean & healthy, the last push up was paired with a lot of longs chasing and is also one of the main reasons why price stalled out. A flush in open interest back into the white dotted line would make for a nice reset in that regard and would make me more bullish again in the short/mid term.

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$BTC After a peak post elections, the search traffic for "Bitcoin" has stalled out and slowly come back down. Think this adds to the idea that the current market participants are pretty much all from previous years and we've had little inflow of fresh retail capital in 2025. Institutions however, are allocating at a rapid pace and I suspect these will eventually catch up with each other again. But we know retail's interest doesn't get peaked much by Bitcoin these days. You need something crazy to make a big run and for BTC Dominance to trend down to really get a renewed retail interest. Until then, we'll just see the same trend continue where big players are allocating into BTC as BTC Dominance trends higher and alts underperform vs BTC.

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If you want to track how altcoins are likely to perform relative to $BTC, one of the main factors will be the $ETH/BTC chart strength. After the recent squeeze, it has been consolidating between this ~0.022-0.026 range. If it were to break above that, it should temporarily give another boost to ALT/BTC pairs and primarily ETH related coins (DeFi, ETH Memes, L2s etc). Below that 0.0224 horizontal I'd start getting very cautious on alts relative to BTC as that might mean this will retrace the squeeze from before. Keep in mind, it does not mean USD values have to go up or down based on this. We often see BTC rally hard and ALT/BTC pairs to drop as was the case for most of this cycle. The opposite can also occur.

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