$XRP The price of XRP has experienced a significant drop in recent days, wiping out most of the gains from May and shifting momentum from bullish to bearish as we enter June.
As this altcoin faces the final month of Q2, traders and investors are wondering whether this downtrend will continue, or if there is a possibility of recovery.
XRP does not have the best performance
History shows that June is a challenging month for XRP investors. Data from the past 11 years indicates that the average monthly return of XRP in June is -8.49%. This pattern suggests that June may not be favorable for holders seeking profits, especially after recent losses.
This consistent historical trend suggests that XRP may continue to face selling pressure in June. Investors should be cautious, as seasonal weakness could amplify the current bearish sentiment, putting additional pressure on the price of this altcoin.
XRP profits in June over 10 years. Source: CryptoRank
Important XRP investors are selling
Looking at broader market signals, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index is showing a strong increase. CDD is the total number of days destroyed by the sales of investors, particularly from long-term holders (LTHs).
It is measured by multiplying the number of coins used in a transaction by the number of days those coins were held since their last movement. For example, if 100 coins were held for 10 days before being used, the CDD would equal 1,000 (100 coins × 10 days).
XRP's CDD is currently at 337 billion, the highest level since December 2024. This increase in CDD indicates that many LTHs are selling their held XRP, possibly to secure profits before further price declines.
The increased sell-off from these seasoned investors indicates that confidence in XRP's short-term recovery is waning. Considering that LTHs are seen as the backbone of an asset, any sell-off from them could negatively affect the price.
XRP Coin Days Destroyed. Source: Glassnode
However, XRP has one good thing happening, which is that the SEC lawsuit is nearing its end. Expected to conclude soon, this will be a major development for XRP, and Alexis Sirkia, Captain of Yellow, in an interview with BeInCrypto, stated that he believes this will be a significant catalyst in accelerating Ripple's ICO.
"Of course, everyone is awaiting the conclusion of the SEC lawsuit and the timing of Ripple's ICO. Ripple is the largest crypto holder in the space, even larger than Strategy. Holding 50% of the XRP supply, if Ripple becomes a public company, it would be an attractive investment with over $120 billion worth of XRP in treasury, double that of MicroStrategy. Ripple would become the largest publicly held crypto company in the world, which I believe will attract attention and investment, positively impacting the price of XRP," Sirkia said.
XRP price is facing a correction
XRP has been in a downtrend since mid-May and is currently trading at $2.16. This altcoin remains above the important support level of $2.12, but the outlook suggests further declines as bearish momentum grows stronger.
If XRP breaks below the support level of $2.12, the price could slide down to $2.02 and if it cannot hold, it may drop further to $1.94. This would mark a two-month low and could lead to increased selling pressure in the future. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently below the neutral line in the bearish zone, supports this outlook. This indicates a lack of buying momentum.
XRP price analysis. Source: TradingView
However, there is one factor that could change the direction of this altcoin sooner if it becomes a reality – XRP ETF. This is one of the most anticipated ETFs, but it has not yet been approved. When that happens, it is expected to attract significant investment into XRP. But Alexis Sirkia stated the next thing for XRP may not be an ETF.
"It seems there is a shift in interest from ETFs like Grayscale significantly reducing holdings while companies holding Bitcoin like Strategy appear to be doing better and increasing their holdings. Therefore, newcomers to XRP like Hyperscale or VivoPower may actually become more significant than XRP ETFs when they are approved, and as MicroStrategy (now Strategy) has shown us, that may not matter as long as investors have the option to invest indirectly in XRP," Sirkia said.
Therefore, such exposure could certainly help the price increase significantly. Furthermore, if retail investors start accumulating XRP sold by LTHs, this altcoin could bounce from the support level of $2.12. A recovery above the resistance at $2.27 would invalidate the bearish argument and could push the price of XRP up to $2.50.
