Recently, the Bitcoin market has been somewhat volatile, mainly influenced by news from the United States. A few days ago, Trump started making waves again, stating that China violated the Geneva trade agreement, and starting next week, he plans to raise steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, while also expanding sanctions against Chinese technology companies, particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence, supercomputing, and quantum technology. This has increased market concerns about the uncertainty in Sino-U.S. relations, leading to a rise in risk-averse sentiment, causing both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin to experience slight corrections.
However, Bitcoin has not dropped much and is still around $104,000. The strongest support zone below is between $93,000 and $98,000, where there are 2.32 million Bitcoins held mainly by long-term holders, indicating their optimism for the future market. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is continuously flowing out of exchanges, with many people buying and transferring their coins to personal wallets for holding. The fear index is currently at 55, which is considered neutral, and no large-scale sell-offs have been observed. Large holders are also continuously buying, indicating that overall market sentiment remains positive.
This wave of decline mainly aims to clear long leverage, with $667 million liquidated over 24 hours, and long positions accounting for $590 million. If U.S. stocks do not decline significantly, Bitcoin is likely to rebound, possibly even rising back to between $108,000 and $110,000. Additionally, recent ETF data also shows that funds are being repositioned. There has been some outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs, while Ethereum ETFs have seen inflows for 10 consecutive days. This may be related to the hopeful approval of Ethereum spot ETFs, with some institutions positioning themselves in advance.
