On February 2, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, there are 17 days remaining until the next FOMC meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is 4.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 95.4%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged until July is 73.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 25.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 1%.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that historical data shows June is typically one of the months with relatively flat performance and higher volatility for Bitcoin, with an average return of only 1.9% and a probability of increase at 50%. In contrast, October stands out as the month with the strongest seasonal performance for Bitcoin. Last year's market performance provides important reference: Bitcoin fell 7.1% in June, and despite a small rebound of 3.1% in July, it fell again by 8.7% in August. Based on the weakening seasonal momentum, we adjusted to a more cautious trading strategy last week. The current data and market performance align with this judgment. Although the data is pessimistic, institutions have been continuously increasing their positions. Last week, global publicly listed crypto companies (excluding mining companies) had a total net inflow of $196 million into Bitcoin in a single week. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has continuously increased its holdings for 8 weeks, investing $75 million last week at a price of $106,495, increasing its position by 705 BTC, bringing the total holdings to 580,955 BTC. MetaPlanet also made a significant purchase last week, investing $117 million at a price of $107,771, increasing its holdings by 1,088 BTC, bringing the total to 8,888 BTC. Additionally, Gamestop disclosed its Bitcoin holdings for the first time last week, holding a total of 4,710 BTC as of May 28, but did not disclose its purchase cost and holding cost. The total amount of Bitcoin held by global publicly listed crypto companies (excluding mining companies) is 636,960 BTC, with a current market value of approximately $6.635 billion, accounting for 3.2% of Bitcoin's circulating market value.