On May 25, 2025, both Russia and Ukraine launched mutual airstrikes on the capital, escalating a conflict that has lasted five years. This coincides with the Trump administration's steel tariff doubling policy set to take effect on June 4, causing global financial markets to tighten instantly, and the cryptocurrency market to surge with waves of turmoil!

First, let's look at Trump's tariff strategy. On April 2 of this year, he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all trading partners, which directly triggered a global stock market crash on April 7, with Bitcoin dropping 5% that day, leading to over 280,000 liquidations within 24 hours. The steel tariff announced on May 30, doubling from 25% to 50%, further intensified market panic. History tends to repeat itself, just like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 1930s that led to the Great Depression; this tariff war has also driven investors to desperately seek safe-haven assets. Interestingly, after the sharp decline in April, Bitcoin's price increase that month reached twice that of gold, with funds starting to treat it as 'digital gold' to hedge against policy risks.

Next, let's examine the ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The incident on May 25, where both sides bombarded the capital, accelerated the Russian public's shift towards cryptocurrency. It's important to note that Russia will allow companies to use Bitcoin for international payments by 2024, and in January this year, it relaxed restrictions on mining. Following the escalation of the conflict, more funds began to bypass sanctions through cryptocurrency; for instance, the issuance of USDT on the TRON chain exceeded $70 billion in April, making it the preferred choice for Russian users due to its trading speed and cost advantages. Meanwhile, Bitcoin set a historic high of $110,900 on May 22, driven primarily by institutional buying and safe-haven demand.

Amidst these two black swan events, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market has been infinitely amplified. Bitcoin dropped to a low of $77,000 on April 7, but rebounded to $100,000 on May 8 due to an agreement on tariffs between the UK and US. Standard Chartered even predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025. However, risks cannot be overlooked; the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the unpredictability of the Russia-Ukraine situation could cause the market to reverse suddenly.

Now, global investors are closely watching the market reaction after the tariffs take effect on June 4, as well as the next moves in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Will Bitcoin be able to stand its ground in this storm and become the true king of safe havens? How will cryptocurrencies influence the geopolitical landscape?