The "Sell in May and Go Away" Strategy

The "Sell in May and Go Away" strategy suggests that investors exit the market in May and return in November, due to historically weak performance in the summer months (June to September). Bitcoin data partially supports this view, but when excluding bear market years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, the average returns for summer months turn positive, with September profits at +0.37% and October reaching as high as +26%. This indicates that the summer slump is mainly driven by bear markets rather than a fixed pattern.

Cost of Compound Returns

Investing $100 in 2012 and holding continuously yields over $2 billion.

Exiting in May and returning in November: only $112 million, an 18-fold decrease.

Avoiding June to September: $536 million, only 1/4 of continuous holding. Missing the summer has weakened Bitcoin's exponential growth effect.

Current Market Outlook

On-chain indicators show that Bitcoin is far from reaching the cycle top, with a peak possibly coming in October 2025 or later. The summer could become a key rising period, and exiting may mean missing out on a bull market explosion.

Conclusion

Bitcoin prices are driven by supply and demand and macroeconomic factors, with limited influence from seasonal factors. A strong rise may occur in the summer of 2025, and investors should pay attention to on-chain and macro signals, discard the "Sell in May" cliché, and focus on long-term positioning.