The cryptocurrency market will welcome several key events in June 2025, which could significantly impact market sentiment, price volatility, and long-term trends. Here are significant events worth noting, analyzed in conjunction with recent market dynamics and trends:

1. US Macroeconomic Data and Federal Reserve Policy

  • June 4: US House Stablecoin Legislation Hearing

    The US House will discuss legislation related to stablecoins, which may provide more clarity on the regulatory framework for stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC). The stablecoin market surpassed a market capitalization of $200 billion in the first quarter of 2025 and is expected to achieve a daily settlement volume of $300 billion by the end of the year. New regulations may promote the use of stablecoins in global commerce, benefiting related projects (such as Tether, Circle), but could also trigger short-term market volatility.

  • June 19: FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Powell's Press Conference

    The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech will directly impact risk asset markets, including cryptocurrencies. The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates (having lowered rates three times in 2024), which usually benefits high-risk assets like Bitcoin. However, if core PCE inflation data (to be released on May 30) exceeds expectations, it may lead to increased risk aversion in the market, suppressing Bitcoin and altcoin prices in the short term.

  • Impact: The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to macro data, and investors are advised to closely monitor CPI, PCE, and employment data, adjusting their positions to manage potential volatility.

2. Regulatory Dynamics

  • June 1: SEC Review Deadline for Grayscale Ethereum ETF Staking Feature

    The SEC will decide whether to allow Grayscale's Ethereum ETF to incorporate staking features, which could introduce staking rewards for the Ethereum ETF and attract more institutional funds. Currently, the assets under management of the Ethereum ETF have exceeded $12 billion, and the approval of staking functionality may further drive up the ETH price (expected price range for 2025 is $1667-$5590).

  • Changes in SEC Leadership and Policy Shift

    With Gary Gensler resigning as SEC chairman on January 20, 2025, the new chair Paul Atkins (nominated by Trump) is perceived to be more crypto-friendly. More signals of easing policies may emerge in June, such as relaxed registration requirements for crypto exchanges or further revisions to SAB 121 (which had some provisions repealed on January 23 to reduce the complexity of digital asset accounting). These changes may boost market confidence, especially regarding institutional adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

3. Industry Conferences and Events

  • June 24-26: Permissionless IV (Brooklyn, New York)

    The Permissionless IV conference, hosted by Blockworks and Bankless, will focus on topics such as the US elections, stablecoins, NFTs, AI, and the Bitcoin revival. The conference will gather tech founders, developers, and industry leaders to discuss the future development of crypto technology. Previous guests at the conference have included Chris Dixon from a16z Crypto and Paul Grewal, chief legal officer of Coinbase, which may bring new project exposure and investment opportunities to the market.


  • Other Events:


    • June 9: Incrypted Online Marathon 2024 (part of Ukraine Blockchain Week), will discuss Web3 trends online, possibly involving emerging markets and regulatory dynamics.

    • There may also be other online AMAs and community events in June, such as the AMA with KuCoin and Pufferverse (date not specified in June), which could provide exposure for new projects (such as $FLOWER).

  • Impact: These events may drive short-term hype for new projects (such as AI-driven tokens, NFT projects) or altcoins, and investors should pay attention to announcements and collaboration news during the conferences.

4. Market Trends and Technological Development

  • Expansion of Stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets)

    The tokenization of stablecoins and RWAs is expected to continue growing in 2025. VanEck forecasts that the daily settlement volume of stablecoins will increase from the current $100 billion to $300 billion, and BlackRock's BUIDL fund and Hashnote's USYC token demonstrate the potential for RWA tokenization (such as US Treasuries and real estate). Legislative hearings on stablecoins in June could further accelerate this trend.


  • Integration of AI and Blockchain

    AI-driven decentralized applications (dApps) and AI tokens (such as Fetch.ai) are expected to gain attention in 2025. More AI agent protocols (such as yield optimization tools in decentralized finance) may be released or updated in June, attracting investor interest.


  • Possibility of Altcoin Season

    Some posts predict that a market correction may occur in the first half of June, but the second half may provide opportunities for altcoins to bottom out and rebound. If 'Altcoin Season' kicks off, Solana (expected price range $121-$590), XRP ($1.80-$5.25), and Cardano ($0.66-$2.36) may perform well.

5. Other Noteworthy Events


  • Institutional Investment Dynamics

    Institutions continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, with MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific recently purchasing 8,800 BTC, indicating strong institutional demand. More companies may announce plans to include Bitcoin on their balance sheets in June, boosting market sentiment.


  • Policy Support

    There may be new developments in June regarding the 'American Crypto Capital' plan and discussions on Bitcoin as a strategic reserve pushed by the Trump administration, particularly after adjustments to SEC policies. This could further strengthen Bitcoin's position as a reserve asset.


6. Market Sentiment and Risks


  • Market Sentiment: The current Fear and Greed Index is at 60 (Greed), reflecting a generally optimistic market sentiment, but macro data and regulatory events in June may trigger volatility. Some posts indicate that certain traders expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to perform weakly in the first half of June, with a potential 'flash crash' occurring, suggesting a light position or waiting for lower entry points.

  • Risk Warning:

    • Geopolitical and Economic Risks: US tariffs on Canada and Mexico could trigger risk aversion, impacting the crypto market.


    • Regulatory Uncertainty: Although US policies are becoming friendlier, regulations in other parts of the world (such as China's ongoing restrictions on crypto exchanges) may create localized market pressures.


    • Technical Risks: High-leverage trading should be approached with caution; it is advisable to set stop-loss orders to manage potential downside risks.

Conclusion

June 2025 is a critical window for the cryptocurrency market, with macroeconomic data (FOMC, CPI), regulatory progress (stablecoin legislation, SEC policies), industry conferences (Permissionless IV), and trends in AI and RWA all warranting close attention. Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of $103,418-$133,901, while altcoins may see opportunities in the second half of the month. Investors should monitor key support levels (such as BTC $94,000, ETH $2,120) and manage risks stringently during high volatility periods.

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